I don't know why we are debating this, but new information is revealed

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Mar 14, 2013
1:44:10pm

cheezedawg

I don't know why we are debating this, but new information is revealed

When you pick at the beginning, you have a 2/3rds chance of being wrong. The new information rules out one of those 2, so now if you switch to the only one left you have a 2/3rds chance of winning.

Whats next? Are we going to speculate on the atomic number of Oxygen?

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cheezedawg

Bio page: cheezedawg
Joined: Oct 4, 2007
Last login: Jun 2, 2024
Total posts: 66,736 (16,850 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

The Monty "Max" Hall problem - Anyone else take issue with it besides the Utes?

MightyFreakingCougar

3/14/13 12:44pm

Ugh I hate this thing. I firmly believe it doesn't matter if you swap or not.

SandYFan

3/14/13 12:47pm

but if you actually simulate it yourself hundreds of times

COUGALICIOUS

3/14/13 12:50pm

but the odds end up being exactly the same

Belboz

3/14/13 12:55pm

No, you choose one and there's a 2/3 chance it is behind 2 OR 3

gustav88

3/14/13 1:00pm

and then there are 2 remaining doors.

Belboz

3/14/13 1:02pm

No because the information revealed to you depends on which door you pick

cheezedawg

3/14/13 1:38pm

I agree that the additional information negates the original odds.

61_Shasta

3/14/13 1:05pm

The fallacy is thinking new info was revealed. It was not.

dilbert

3/14/13 1:20pm

Perhaps new information has not been revealed but the game has still changed

61_Shasta

3/14/13 1:42pm

I don't know why we are debating this, but new information is revealed

cheezedawg

3/14/13 1:44pm

Whether that's what you believe or not

The Shazad

3/14/13 2:13pm

No, it is not intuitive, but I don't take issue with it because it is right.

workindev

3/14/13 12:50pm

I don't understand how this relates to Max Hall

chodakus

3/14/13 12:50pm

We've been through it enough already.

Belboz

3/14/13 12:51pm

I must have missed those elusive conversations. Science has this one wrong!

MightyFreakingCougar

3/14/13 1:05pm

You should always change -- now a 2/3 chance of other door

gustav88

3/14/13 12:53pm

Who is that in your Sig, cause that's awesome

RaggaeCoug

3/14/13 12:58pm

Marshall Henderson. Yeah, he's awesome.

Belboz

3/14/13 1:03pm

Wait is that Marsha from Utah?

RaggaeCoug

3/14/13 1:05pm

yes.

Belboz

3/14/13 1:07pm

Always change, it is the right choice

mpfunk

3/14/13 12:59pm

Linked explanation

gustav88

3/14/13 1:01pm

It took reading that to convince me.

Tricky

3/14/13 2:50pm

Yeah, thanks for that btw. Really helped. Funny all the crap she got.

MightyFreakingCougar

3/14/13 4:12pm

the real question is why do they always use a car and two goats in this question

3/14/13 1:35pm

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