You can at least wait until after camps when a lot of guys come out and then commit. And even more try to commit shortly after, before their HS seasons start. Kids don't know much about the staff. Chill and let things happen. Read your last sentence of the OP and see if it's worth it.

There are a lot of reasons to offer even kids you don't stand a chance with, and even then, some of you need to admit that because you see a black non lds kid with offers get one from BYU, you automatically put him in that group without knowing a thing about their chances. I'd also like to know where you came up with your conclusions about first year staffs, and Sitake.