That OOC schedule is NOT competitive enough to make the NCAA tourney unless BYU has a 4 or 5 loss season. And that's not realistic.

And I don't know what to say on the transfers. Of course misevaluations are going to happen. That's inevitable. But when half or more than of your players leave early, the issue is either something bigger than misevaluations or the staff is really, really bad at evaluating players.