BYU is unusual in that for a non- Michigan/Penn State/ USC type it has fans who have never gone to school there or fans who just want the team to do well. Every school can have some regional fans but rarely does a school who isn't a national, consistent power house have as many fans as BYU does. I mean you don't see many UCONN football fans, or even Kansas/Oregon State fans, around the country. The doomsday scenario for independence is that we keep losing and all of these "fair weather" fans start to not show up. So the theory about independence not working has more to do with the more casual fan than with the diehards. BYU has a lot of diehard fans to be sure. But we need to win to keep the casual Mormon who likes the Y interested, and most importantly, we need a generation of kids who will be diehards. Everyone my age remembers the Miami game, but that game doesn't mean as much to my BYU student son.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting this is the path we're on. I'm just saying this is probably the only way it could be true.