He's saying that winning all three is plausible and would be the ceiling, because it's implausible to see BYU beat Wisconsin or Washington this year (not impossible, but implausible).

So basically anything above about a 10% chance should be considered. Thus 4-8 is the floor (3-9 is possible, but I'd put it at less than 10%) and 10-2 is the ceiling (if you're a BYU fan, I personally think the chances of 10-2 are lower than the chances of 3-9).

I think he's wrong. I think the realistic ceiling this year is 8-4, because I don't think it's realistic to see BYU beating Boise, Utah, Arizona, and Cal. But it is plausible that they'd go 2-2 in those 4 games, ending 8-4. I don't think the coaching changes will be enough to overcome the losses on OL and LB and the continuing QB/RB/WR issues (not to mention that I think the secondary is going to be bad again, and I don't think the pass rush will have improved by moving Takitaki). But I'm a Ute. It's reasonable for a cougar to think that they can beat all four of their "good" opponents, plus the two "average" ones (NIU and USU) but lose both games against the "great" opponents.