If 10 wins is your ceiling, then 3 is the floor, because we're venturing into like <5% territory for both of those, IMO, and I think 3 wins is more likely than 10. I'd put the percentages about like this:

12-0: 0.001%
11-1: 0.01%
10-2: 0.4%
09-3: 2%
08-4: 5%
07-5: 15%
06-6: 30%
05-7: 30%
04-8: 10%
03-9: 5%
2-10: 2.18% (to make my math work)
1-11: 0.4%
0-12: 0.009%

If Kalani gets 8 wins, you need to give him and Grimes long extensions. That would be an amazing turnaround. Especially if he does it with a FR QB and if Romney ends up your #1 WR, because that sets him up for success against your very difficult schedules the next three years (and those are going to be very tough to get to 6 wins, but if Wilson and Romney produce and Romney doesn't go on a mission it's going to be much more possible than it looks right now).