Yeah, that's...not right

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May 30, 2019
2:42:26pm

CommodoreCoug All-American

Yeah, that's...not right

Monty Hall problem

The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975 (Selvin 1975a), (Selvin 1975b). It became famous as a question from a reader's letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in Parade magazine in 1990 (vos Savant 1990a):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions

This message has been modified

Originally posted on May 30, 2019 at 2:42:26pm

Message modified by CommodoreCoug on May 30, 2019 at 2:42:44pm

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CommodoreCoug

Previous username: jbcoug
Bio page: CommodoreCoug
Joined: Aug 13, 2003
Last login: Jun 2, 2024
Total posts: 31,810 (5,814 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing behind

scooter7

5/30/19 2:30pm

RE: Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing

kcca

5/30/19 2:30pm

The prize doesn't move. You changing your decision makes no difference.

SandYFan

5/30/19 2:30pm

Well you are.

Ozymandias

5/30/19 2:32pm

RE: The prize doesn't move. You changing your decision makes no difference.

kcca

5/30/19 2:34pm

You are. Run a simulation of this 10,000 times and the person who switches wins

dezzy

5/30/19 2:35pm

Its because the host opening door B provides new information that depends on the door that the contestant chose

cheezedawg

5/30/19 2:41pm

here's a good explanation of why the correct answer is option 1

Coog4Life

5/30/19 2:36pm

Your chance of winning is 50/50 regardless. So you're both correct and wrong

UberDeek

5/30/19 2:36pm

Yeah, that's...not right

5/30/19 2:42pm

RE: Yeah, that's...not right

UberDeek

5/30/19 2:43pm

Nope.

dezzy

5/30/19 2:43pm

RE: Nope.

UberDeek

5/30/19 2:44pm

It sounded good, but it’s wrong.

BYUforlife

5/30/19 5:09pm

That would be true if the host picked a random door to show you, but he doesn't. He shows you a losing door.

cheezedawg

5/30/19 2:43pm

Yeah, I figured that out at the bottom of this thread

UberDeek

5/30/19 2:45pm

The host only eliminates bad doors thats what you are missing

ayfan

5/30/19 2:48pm

It clicked for me when I realized they don't choose to open door randomly.

CosmoK

5/30/19 2:41pm

The problem is that fact is not always explained well when the riddle is told.

Game Changer

5/30/19 2:55pm

Here is analogy that might help

ayfan

5/30/19 2:42pm

Option 1

Peanut

5/30/19 2:31pm

1

El Careeb

5/30/19 2:31pm

If I want an A I choose #1. In real life, it won’t matter because

Zaphod

5/30/19 2:33pm

Always switch.

durandal

5/30/19 2:34pm

RE: Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing

garyfan

5/30/19 2:34pm

1. Learned this in stats 201.

Roko's Basilisk

5/30/19 2:35pm

I learned it in stats 101

Zaphod

5/30/19 2:36pm

I'm a slow learner.

Roko's Basilisk

5/30/19 2:36pm

I didn't get it until stats 301

rcbyufan

5/30/19 2:39pm

U of U?

Zaphod

5/30/19 2:41pm

No. I was just joking. But my stats class was whatever they make engineers take

rcbyufan

5/30/19 2:50pm

Learned this watching the mediocre film "21"

ChiCityCoug

5/30/19 2:39pm

Is the one behind one of the remaining doors?

Shihan

5/30/19 2:35pm

It doubles by switching.

molodyets

5/30/19 2:36pm

I get what your saying, but at the same time... I kind of disagree

UberDeek

5/30/19 2:38pm

RE: I get what your saying, but at the same time... I kind of disagree

molodyets

5/30/19 2:40pm

The easiest way to look at it is you originally have a 1/3 chance of choosing

BYUMizzou

5/30/19 2:48pm

Tevia explains it best

libertycoug

5/30/19 3:49pm

Always switch. It’s basic probability.

5/30/19 2:49pm

Does that rule change if the host sometimes doesn't offer a switch?

Busiturtle

5/30/19 2:59pm

Its extremely unintuitive, but it is better to switch

darkcoug

5/30/19 2:49pm

But what if after you switch doors (thereby increasing your chances to 50%)

stoils

5/30/19 4:05pm

Nothing changes if he does not open any more doors

darkcoug

5/30/19 4:06pm

Switching doors moves your chances to 66.6%, not 50%

molodyets

5/30/19 4:20pm

Switch. 2/3 chance by switching. 1/3 chance by staying.

Adwight

5/30/19 2:49pm

Change the number to 100 doors

PaxDog

5/30/19 2:49pm

On a separate note: I found that teachers that pushed examples to the extreme

rcbyufan

5/30/19 2:59pm

easy.

riboflavin

5/30/19 2:51pm

I cut myself on this post

darkcoug

5/30/19 3:08pm

RE: easy.

UberDeek

5/30/19 3:13pm

Weird flex but ok

bigbossbyu

5/30/19 3:19pm

RE: easy.

J-Rod

5/30/19 3:21pm

RE: easy.

Blue Golfer

5/30/19 8:57pm

Classic game theory question. The answer is

WDaddy

5/30/19 2:51pm

Is this a game at Lagoon? That will affect my answer.

Brutus216

5/30/19 2:53pm

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