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May 30, 2019
2:49
:41
pm
PaxDog
All-American
Change the number to 100 doors
And it becomes obvious. You pick one and the host removes 98 leaving one. Do you switch?
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PaxDog
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PaxDog
Joined
Jan 19, 2006
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Jan 19, 2023
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Messages
Author
Time
Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing behind
scooter7
5/30/19 2:30pm
RE: Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing
kcca
5/30/19 2:30pm
The prize doesn't move. You changing your decision makes no difference.
SandYFan
5/30/19 2:30pm
Well you are.
Ozymandias
5/30/19 2:32pm
RE: The prize doesn't move. You changing your decision makes no difference.
kcca
5/30/19 2:34pm
You are. Run a simulation of this 10,000 times and the person who switches wins
dezzy
5/30/19 2:35pm
Its because the host opening door B provides new information that depends on the door that the contestant chose
cheezedawg
5/30/19 2:41pm
here's a good explanation of why the correct answer is option 1
Coog4Life
5/30/19 2:36pm
Your chance of winning is 50/50 regardless. So you're both correct and wrong
UberDeek
5/30/19 2:36pm
Yeah, that's...not right
CommodoreCoug
5/30/19 2:42pm
RE: Yeah, that's...not right
UberDeek
5/30/19 2:43pm
Nope.
dezzy
5/30/19 2:43pm
RE: Nope.
UberDeek
5/30/19 2:44pm
It sounded good, but it’s wrong.
BYUforlife
5/30/19 5:09pm
That would be true if the host picked a random door to show you, but he doesn't. He shows you a losing door.
cheezedawg
5/30/19 2:43pm
Yeah, I figured that out at the bottom of this thread
UberDeek
5/30/19 2:45pm
The host only eliminates bad doors thats what you are missing
ayfan
5/30/19 2:48pm
It clicked for me when I realized they don't choose to open door randomly.
CosmoK
5/30/19 2:41pm
The problem is that fact is not always explained well when the riddle is told.
Game Changer
5/30/19 2:55pm
Here is analogy that might help
ayfan
5/30/19 2:42pm
Option 1
Peanut
5/30/19 2:31pm
1
El Careeb
5/30/19 2:31pm
If I want an A I choose #1. In real life, it won’t matter because
Zaphod
5/30/19 2:33pm
Always switch.
durandal
5/30/19 2:34pm
RE: Old riddle. There are 3 doors, behind one is a million $, and nothing
garyfan
5/30/19 2:34pm
1. Learned this in stats 201.
Roko's Basilisk
5/30/19 2:35pm
I learned it in stats 101
Zaphod
5/30/19 2:36pm
I'm a slow learner.
Roko's Basilisk
5/30/19 2:36pm
I didn't get it until stats 301
rcbyufan
5/30/19 2:39pm
U of U?
Zaphod
5/30/19 2:41pm
No. I was just joking. But my stats class was whatever they make engineers take
rcbyufan
5/30/19 2:50pm
Learned this watching the mediocre film "21"
ChiCityCoug
5/30/19 2:39pm
Is the one behind one of the remaining doors?
Shihan
5/30/19 2:35pm
It doubles by switching.
molodyets
5/30/19 2:36pm
I get what your saying, but at the same time... I kind of disagree
UberDeek
5/30/19 2:38pm
RE: I get what your saying, but at the same time... I kind of disagree
molodyets
5/30/19 2:40pm
The easiest way to look at it is you originally have a 1/3 chance of choosing
BYUMizzou
5/30/19 2:48pm
Tevia explains it best
libertycoug
5/30/19 3:49pm
Always switch. It’s basic probability.
YIsForBrigham
5/30/19 2:49pm
Does that rule change if the host sometimes doesn't offer a switch?
Busiturtle
5/30/19 2:59pm
Its extremely unintuitive, but it is better to switch
darkcoug
5/30/19 2:49pm
But what if after you switch doors (thereby increasing your chances to 50%)
stoils
5/30/19 4:05pm
Nothing changes if he does not open any more doors
darkcoug
5/30/19 4:06pm
Switching doors moves your chances to 66.6%, not 50%
molodyets
5/30/19 4:20pm
Switch. 2/3 chance by switching. 1/3 chance by staying.
Adwight
5/30/19 2:49pm
Change the number to 100 doors
PaxDog
5/30/19 2:49pm
On a separate note: I found that teachers that pushed examples to the extreme
rcbyufan
5/30/19 2:59pm
easy.
riboflavin
5/30/19 2:51pm
I cut myself on this post
darkcoug
5/30/19 3:08pm
RE: easy.
UberDeek
5/30/19 3:13pm
Weird flex but ok
bigbossbyu
5/30/19 3:19pm
RE: easy.
J-Rod
5/30/19 3:21pm
RE: easy.
Blue Golfer
5/30/19 8:57pm
Classic game theory question. The answer is
WDaddy
5/30/19 2:51pm
Is this a game at Lagoon? That will affect my answer.
Brutus216
5/30/19 2:53pm
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