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Nov 3, 2019
11:03:15am
jreid191 All-American
Top 25 according to Strength of Record, Game Control, FPI, etc. (week 10)
I took the average ranks from the various ESPN Resume and FPI components and average them together to come up w/ a composite ranking of sorts. Components include Strength of Record, Adjusted W/L, Game Control, Average Win Probability, FPI, and Projected W/L. Here's the top 25 based on the average of those rankings:

1. Ohio St (8-0)
2. Alabama (8-0)
3. LSU (8-0)
4. Penn St (8-0)
5. Clemson (9-0)
6. Oregon (8-1)
7. Oklahoma (7-1)
8. Georgia (7-1)
9. Utah (8-1)
10. Baylor (8-0)
11. Auburn (7-2)
12. Wisconsin (6-2)
13. Minnesota (8-0)
14. Florida (7-2)
15. Michigan (7-2)
16. Notre Dame (6-2)
17. Iowa (6-2)
18. SMU (8-1)
19. Cincinnati (7-1)
20. UCF (7-2)
21. Navy (7-1)
22. Memphis (8-1)
23. Kansas St (6-2)
24. Washington (5-4)
25. Indiana (7-2)

Based upon those rankings, the NY6 Bowl Game projections would be as follows:

Peach Bowl: 1 Ohio St vs 4 Penn St
Fiesta Bowl: 2 Alabama vs 3 LSU

Rose Bowl: 6 Oregon vs 12 Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: 7 Oklahoma vs 8 Georgia
Orange Bowl: 5 Clemson vs 11 Auburn
Cotton Bowl: 9 Utah vs 19 Cincinnati

Currently SMU is rated higher than Cincinnati in this (18 vs 19), but w/ loss to Memphis they are unlikely to win division over Memphis. Cincinnati is probably the front runner in the AAC right now.

Also, odds are strongly against 2 B1G AND 2 SEC teams in the playoff. These are based on results "right now" but odds are 1 or 2 of those teams fall after playing each other. Clemson and Oregon are the next 2 in line. If Clemson makes the playoff then Wake Forest (currently rated #31) is the replacement in the Orange Bowl.

BYU comes in at #51 currently. In looking at their schedule, their opponents are ranked as follows:

9. Utah (L)
24. Washington (L)
27. Boise St (W)
39. USC (W)
37. @San Diego St
50. @Tennessee (W)
69. @Utah St (W)
79. @Toledo (L)
81. Liberty
90. @South Florida (L)
129. @UMass
FCS. Idaho St

Based upon who our wins and losses have been against relative to their ranks and being home/away, I'd expect BYU to have the following results in remaining games:

Likely Wins - Liberty, @UMass, Idaho St
Toss-up - @San Diego St

Of the likely wins, the only one that COULD present a challenge is Liberty. I don't think they will, but we have lost to a worse team than them in South Florida so anything could happen. SDSU is a game that could go either way. Based on how we've looked the last 2 weeks I like our chances, but they are probably the best team we will have faced on the road all season. That'd put our "ceiling" at 8-4 and our "floor" at 7-5 barring any major surprises. That's a far better outlook than things looked a few weeks ago.
jreid191
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jreid191
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Last login
May 3, 2024
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