But it's useful to notice that 14% of all cases with an outcome have led to a death. 117,909 cases resolved around the world. 101,554 discharged (86%) and 13,355 deaths (14%). I obviously do not think that will be our final number, as it takes longer for people to die than to be diagnosed, and longer still for them to recover, apparently, but the best case scenario we have right now is the 1.2% death rate in South Korea, where a majority of cases still haven't resolved, even as new cases have shrunk dramatically. Their death rate is going up, as deaths catch up with past case numbers.

I think around 1% is highly possible in the U.S. If we let it rage without taking measures, it could easily infect 80% of us. That's more than 2.5M deaths, assuming we miraculously keep a low death rate when hospitals are inundated with patients. Maybe it's lower than that, but it could easily be two or three percent or higher.

To point this out is not fear mongering.