Here's what I've seen

Apr 10, 2020
1:13:27pm

bythenumbers Walk-on

I linked in my post:

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

The New York Times

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

Travelers seeded multiple cases starting as early as mid-February, genomes show.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

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bythenumbers

Bio page: bythenumbers
Joined: Mar 16, 2020
Last login: May 1, 2024
Total posts: 1,771 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

It's been here longer than we think - I have the numbers

bythenumbers

4/10/20 12:50pm

This is great stuff. Thanks. What are the dates that correspond to Week 1, Week 2, etc in the x axis?

Greg Kite's 'stache

4/10/20 12:52pm

Not sure. Too lazy to find out. Likely the first full week of the year or Jan 5

bythenumbers

4/10/20 12:54pm

Nice job. I am looking forward to serology results.

PJMort

4/10/20 12:54pm

Can you give context on the absolute numbers

Coog4Life

4/10/20 12:54pm

I added to post at bottom

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:00pm

The US +25 population is roughly at 222.1M, the 0.4% delta means 888,392 cases

jamalccc

4/10/20 1:04pm

Thank you

Coog4Life

4/10/20 5:03pm

This makes sense to me. I just can't imagine that 8,000 people coming into LAX

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 12:54pm

Yep. I've been wondering about Las Vegas. We have huge numbers of Chinese...

PJMort

4/10/20 12:56pm

But why did we have so many negative tests of symptomatic people in Feb when we started testing?

chago04

4/10/20 12:57pm

How accurate were those tests at that time?

webster242

4/10/20 12:59pm

Did we have mass testing in CA in Feb? (honest question, I don't know).

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:00pm

Not really but then wouldn't there be more positive tests coming back now?

chago04

4/10/20 1:01pm

I don't think so. If they already hit the peak, then several are immune. It

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:04pm

That antibody test will be a gamechanger. We will learn a lot when that test goes widespread.

chago04

4/10/20 1:04pm

Agreed.

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:06pm

Because any tests in February were given to us by China and the WHO and they

travelcoug

4/10/20 1:12pm

I can buy that but I do have a question...

bluecheese

4/10/20 12:57pm

These numbers are nationwide

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:01pm

I've had the same question throughout this process. It would seem that we

Zinger

4/10/20 1:02pm

The percentage positive is way high in hot spots 30-40%

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:06pm

Is that positive tests, or people diagnosed with COVID-19?

bluecheese

4/10/20 1:19pm

Positive tests as I understand it

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:29pm

Testing criteria isn't the same in those hot spots, usually tests are for people about to be hospitalized there.

chago04

4/10/20 1:20pm

This is a great read that kind of goes along with what you are saying

therockbenz

4/10/20 12:57pm

Very interesting. Thx

UpperCirqueUte

4/10/20 12:57pm

Bad interpretation, and incomplete data

Sumguy

4/10/20 1:01pm

The arrival happened on two fronts from two different places.

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:01pm

An article about it (there are tons out there).

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:12pm

Yeah, I linked to that one in the post

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:17pm

So underreported Covid deaths being attributed to "flu" perhaps before

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:18pm

Yes, it impacts deaths as well

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:21pm

Will be interesting to see play out.

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:33pm

This is consonant with what I want to be true

Toubibe

4/10/20 3:25pm

sorry, this post was meant for the OP

Toubibe

4/10/20 3:26pm

This doesn't tell as much about absolute numbers

bythenumbers

4/10/20 3:45pm

many have forgotten the original purpose of social distancing

Toubibe

4/10/20 4:06pm

Unfortunately, the genetic analysis has disproved this

CallingDingo

4/10/20 1:06pm

Link?

The Old Y

4/10/20 1:08pm

Here's what I've seen

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:13pm

Not really. I think the genetic analysis I've seen is saying the same thing

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:10pm

Possible supporting data

Northwest Cougar

4/10/20 2:16pm

Yeah

bythenumbers

4/10/20 2:36pm

Really interesting data. I downloaded it and looked at the state level data.

Coach's Dad

4/10/20 2:27pm

Yeah I think the economist looked at that

bythenumbers

4/10/20 2:37pm

Can you explain the source of the data a little more?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 2:56pm

I'm not totally familiar

bythenumbers

4/10/20 3:21pm

That is a pretty cool data set.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 6:48pm

Maybe it's not as lethal

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:05pm

Devil's advocate, people with flu freaked out in mid February went to Dr, verses

viper

4/10/20 7:13pm

That’s my thought. I know of 4 kids in my neighborhood alone who went to MD

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 7:26pm

I looked at data

bythenumbers

4/10/20 7:56pm

How do you jive the spike in numbers but decrease in

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 8:37pm

Keep in mind it's a ratio

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:41pm

That helps. Thanks.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 2:18pm

When did that happen though, were people freaking out in the us in mid Feb?

viper

4/10/20 8:09pm

It was level then dropped off in March. Wasn't increasing

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:11pm

Nah you nailed it see my post below.

CarolinaCoug

4/11/20 11:07am

You arent accounting for many fsctors such as media scarintg crap out of 25y/o

CarolinaCoug

4/11/20 10:53am

Boom

bythenumbers

4/23/20 1:15pm

Plz answer 1 queation. Why if it was here in Dec was there not

CarolinaCoug

4/23/20 7:21pm

It was probably killing old people but just diagnosed as pneumonia,

Coach's Dad

4/23/20 9:47pm

Ther was no increasw in all respirarory related deaths. That's the pointt

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

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