Boom

Apr 23, 2020
1:15:08pm

bythenumbers Walk-on

Boom

Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say

New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle had undetected outbreaks long before testing showed a major problem, according to a model.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html

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bythenumbers

Bio page: bythenumbers
Joined: Mar 16, 2020
Last login: May 10, 2024
Total posts: 1,771 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

It's been here longer than we think - I have the numbers

bythenumbers

4/10/20 12:50pm

This is great stuff. Thanks. What are the dates that correspond to Week 1, Week 2, etc in the x axis?

Greg Kite's 'stache

4/10/20 12:52pm

Not sure. Too lazy to find out. Likely the first full week of the year or Jan 5

bythenumbers

4/10/20 12:54pm

Nice job. I am looking forward to serology results.

PJMort

4/10/20 12:54pm

Can you give context on the absolute numbers

Coog4Life

4/10/20 12:54pm

I added to post at bottom

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:00pm

The US +25 population is roughly at 222.1M, the 0.4% delta means 888,392 cases

jamalccc

4/10/20 1:04pm

Thank you

Coog4Life

4/10/20 5:03pm

This makes sense to me. I just can't imagine that 8,000 people coming into LAX

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 12:54pm

Yep. I've been wondering about Las Vegas. We have huge numbers of Chinese...

PJMort

4/10/20 12:56pm

But why did we have so many negative tests of symptomatic people in Feb when we started testing?

chago04

4/10/20 12:57pm

How accurate were those tests at that time?

webster242

4/10/20 12:59pm

Did we have mass testing in CA in Feb? (honest question, I don't know).

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:00pm

Not really but then wouldn't there be more positive tests coming back now?

chago04

4/10/20 1:01pm

I don't think so. If they already hit the peak, then several are immune. It

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:04pm

That antibody test will be a gamechanger. We will learn a lot when that test goes widespread.

chago04

4/10/20 1:04pm

Agreed.

BYUCougarsFan

4/10/20 1:06pm

Because any tests in February were given to us by China and the WHO and they

travelcoug

4/10/20 1:12pm

I can buy that but I do have a question...

bluecheese

4/10/20 12:57pm

These numbers are nationwide

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:01pm

I've had the same question throughout this process. It would seem that we

Zinger

4/10/20 1:02pm

The percentage positive is way high in hot spots 30-40%

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:06pm

Is that positive tests, or people diagnosed with COVID-19?

bluecheese

4/10/20 1:19pm

Positive tests as I understand it

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:29pm

Testing criteria isn't the same in those hot spots, usually tests are for people about to be hospitalized there.

chago04

4/10/20 1:20pm

This is a great read that kind of goes along with what you are saying

therockbenz

4/10/20 12:57pm

Very interesting. Thx

UpperCirqueUte

4/10/20 12:57pm

Bad interpretation, and incomplete data

Sumguy

4/10/20 1:01pm

The arrival happened on two fronts from two different places.

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:01pm

An article about it (there are tons out there).

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:12pm

Yeah, I linked to that one in the post

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:17pm

So underreported Covid deaths being attributed to "flu" perhaps before

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:18pm

Yes, it impacts deaths as well

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:21pm

Will be interesting to see play out.

Troy McClure

4/10/20 1:33pm

This is consonant with what I want to be true

Toubibe

4/10/20 3:25pm

sorry, this post was meant for the OP

Toubibe

4/10/20 3:26pm

This doesn't tell as much about absolute numbers

bythenumbers

4/10/20 3:45pm

many have forgotten the original purpose of social distancing

Toubibe

4/10/20 4:06pm

Unfortunately, the genetic analysis has disproved this

CallingDingo

4/10/20 1:06pm

Link?

The Old Y

4/10/20 1:08pm

Here's what I've seen

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:13pm

Not really. I think the genetic analysis I've seen is saying the same thing

bythenumbers

4/10/20 1:10pm

Possible supporting data

Northwest Cougar

4/10/20 2:16pm

Yeah

bythenumbers

4/10/20 2:36pm

Really interesting data. I downloaded it and looked at the state level data.

Coach's Dad

4/10/20 2:27pm

Yeah I think the economist looked at that

bythenumbers

4/10/20 2:37pm

Can you explain the source of the data a little more?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 2:56pm

I'm not totally familiar

bythenumbers

4/10/20 3:21pm

That is a pretty cool data set.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 6:48pm

Maybe it's not as lethal

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:05pm

Devil's advocate, people with flu freaked out in mid February went to Dr, verses

viper

4/10/20 7:13pm

That’s my thought. I know of 4 kids in my neighborhood alone who went to MD

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 7:26pm

I looked at data

bythenumbers

4/10/20 7:56pm

How do you jive the spike in numbers but decrease in

StalwartBraveTrue

4/10/20 8:37pm

Keep in mind it's a ratio

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:41pm

That helps. Thanks.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/11/20 2:18pm

When did that happen though, were people freaking out in the us in mid Feb?

viper

4/10/20 8:09pm

It was level then dropped off in March. Wasn't increasing

bythenumbers

4/10/20 8:11pm

Nah you nailed it see my post below.

CarolinaCoug

4/11/20 11:07am

You arent accounting for many fsctors such as media scarintg crap out of 25y/o

CarolinaCoug

4/11/20 10:53am

Boom

bythenumbers

4/23/20 1:15pm

Plz answer 1 queation. Why if it was here in Dec was there not

CarolinaCoug

4/23/20 7:21pm

It was probably killing old people but just diagnosed as pneumonia,

Coach's Dad

4/23/20 9:47pm

Ther was no increasw in all respirarory related deaths. That's the pointt

Hidden Outbreaks Spread Through U.S. Cities Far Earlier Than Americans Knew, Estimates Say

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