for instance, scheduling Tennessee right now is a fantastic win. They are a big name and the have been struggling in a big way for a while now.

I would probably use the "Tier" system as a guideline for scheduling. If you are scheduling several "Tier 1 or 2" teams in one season, yeah it will look exciting on paper, but ultimately end up as likely losses. I think the idea would be to schedule 1 or 2 Tier 1/2 teams (USC, Alabama, Oklahoma or Texas) and then 3-5 tier 4 through 6 teams (Arizona, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Kansas State) and then a few upper G5 teams (Houston, Cincinatti, UCF) and then the rest you fill out with lower G5's. Then make sure you include your annual rivalry games (Utah, USU, Boise State) and you have a very solid schedule that looks good on paper, is winnable, and if won out it will be worthy of a playoff consideration.

Here's a sample schedule based on the tier model:

@ Penn State
vs UCF
vs Utah
@ Kansas State
vs UL-Monroe
@ UCLA
vs USU
vs Boise State
vs Arizona State
@ USC
vs Georgia Southern
@ Kansas

You never know how the teams will actually be come game time, but you can probably bet that in most years Penn State and USC are going to be tough games, and even likely losses. However, you can also bet that the mid-lower P5 teams like Kansas State, Kansas, UCLA, etc are going to be winnable..if not just 50/50. Same thing goes for the upper P5's like Boise State and UCF. Then you have your UL-Monroes and GA So.'s I think you can predict that in MOST years the higher tier teams are going to be higher percentages as a likely loss. I think if you can operate within a scheduling framework that has a realistic probability of going between 8-5 and 11-2 that's where you'd like to be. And when you begin to find that as its getting closer to a future schedule and the teams that you predicted to be likely wins are actually looking like likely losses and it's getting overwhelming then you will want to try to reschedule and replace it with likely wins. Lots of teams have done this to us. However, there are also going to be obvious rebuilding years, so when you look at the roster and realize that you have a new QB who is inexperienced versus a senior laden roster you can make adjustments according to that. I would say its of utmost importance to be very aware in advance what seasons are likely to be your prime-time break out seasons and be proactive in setting up your schedule to be very winnable in those years....with a Boise State culture of REALLY focusing on those 1-2 BIG games every season.

I know this seems complicated, but I also know it can work....which is why I think the AD position is one of the most important positions and requires someone who is highly skilled and intelligent and understands these things in great depth.