TLDR: We make it in the playoffs if all of the following occurs (-1 thing)

• BYU must win out.
• SEC - We don't want Ole Miss to win out and leap frog us, rest of SEC probably doesn't matter.
• Oregon - We want them to lose one more season game, but win conference champ game, and go to Rose Bowl.
• B1G - West can't win conference champ game. We want Ohio St. and Mich. St. in the playoffs. We also want Michigan to lose to Ohio st. and another team.
• ACC - doesn't matter.
• Big 12 - We want Oklahoma to win out (or lose to ISU and beat Baylor and OSU), but not make the playoffs. We also want Baylor and Oklahoma St. to lose to Oklahoma and one other team on their schedules. We want Oklahoma to win the conference championship.
• G5 - We want Cincinatti to win their conference champ game.
• ND needs to lose one more game.

My percentages below are based on my foggy memory of statistics and FPI's odds for each game/season.

BYU must win out. 36.6% chance. Apparently USC is supposed to beat us. We will see about that.

SEC: Georgia and Alabama are basically guaranteed in the Playoff. Which means that the SEC auto-bid to the Sugar Bowl will be either Auburn or Texas A&M. Those two teams are just ahead of us. One of them is guaranteed to lose to the other when they play later this year. So, we will likely jump one when they play, and it doesn't matter what happens to the other because they will have an auto-bid. However, we don't want ole miss to win out, because they could leap frog us. Odds of Ole Miss winning out are 24.3%.

Pac 12: We really want Oregon to lose another conference game but win the conference championship. This would pull them out of the playoffs, but, as conference champs would still be picked for the Rose Bowl. They only have an 10.1% chance of winning out in the regular season. So, odds are pretty good they fall out of the playoffs, the question would be if they can win the conference champ game (34% chance). Who knows what the odds are for the conference champ game.

B1G: Preferably Ohio St. and Mich. St. both make the playoffs. This would mean that Michigan would get the auto bid to the Rose Bowl. This seems unlikely, however, because Ohio St. and Mich. St. play each other later this year. Also, it would be really bad if a team from the B1G West won the conference championship game. If that happened, then something like #20 Minnesota would find it's way into the Rose Bowl. And that would mean the at-large bids would go to Ohio St and Michigan or something like that. Last, unless Ohio St. and Michigan St. both make the playoffs, then we want Michigan to lose at least one game besides their game against Ohio St. 32.1% chance. So that they fall behind BYU.

ACC: Doesn't look like the ACC has a chance at the playoffs and while their conference champ doesn't have a tie-in this year, their conference champ still has to receive an auto-bid. Wake Forest is currently ahead of BYU. If they lose to anyone in the ACC, they will likely fall behind BYU. So, even if the ACC team that beats them jumps a head of us or wins the auto-bid. I think BYU will probably be behind the ACC champ and a head of the rest of the ACC no matter how it turns out.

G5's: We need Cincinatti must win their conference championship game. If they don't, then some other team will be the best G5 conference champ and get the auto-bid. A 12-1 Cincinatti is probably still beating us for the at-large spots. So, we need Cincinatti to win the conference (72.3% chance).

Big 12: This is the most important conference for our chances to make a NY6 Bowl game. It seems crazy to me that the top team Oklahoma, with 0 losses is so far from the playoffs. If they win out and Big 10 losses fall just right and oregon loses one or two, then Oklahoma could get in the playoff if they remain undefeated, but the odds are only 20.1% that they win out. So, it looks like no Big 12 team is going to win the playoffs. If Oklahoma doesn't make the playoffs, then they will get the autobid to the Sugar Bowl. This means we need Oklahoma St. and Baylor to fall behind us, so that we can get one of the at-large bids. The problem is, they have to both lose to Oklahoma or else they will stay ahead of us because that will be a good win. Also, if they lose to Oklahoma, then Oklahoma would probably make the playoffs. Then either Baylor or Oklahoma St. would get the autobid to the Sugar bowl. So, it doesn't look good that we will get ahead of both Baylor and Oklahoma St. Baylor must lose to Oklahoma and arguably also one more team besides (since they beat us head to head). 47.6% chance. Oklahoma St. has to lose to Oklahoma and arguably another team. 43.5% chance this happens. Maybe, just maybe we jump ahead of both of them.

Big 12: Option 2, we could have Baylor to win out, have oklahoma st lose to Oklahoma and at least one other team and have Oklahoma lose their last 3 games. This seems so unlikely that I'm not even analyzing the FPI.

Other Independents: Notre Dame needs to lose at least one game. 67.9% chance. 

If all this happens, then I think you would have something like this:

Geogia vs. Ohio St.

Alabama vs. Michigan St.

Rose Bowl - Michigan vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Sugar Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Wake Forest

Fiesta Bowl - BYU vs. either Baylor, Oklahoma St., ND, Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

Which means, we can probably have one of the many things listed above not happen and still make it in as the last team in. But, thats it.