game (which they likely will). Then the loser will probably be ranked 4 going into the playoffs. Especially if Alabama wins that game. If Alabama loses, then they might not make the playoffs. This would likely not matter for BYU unless both Auburn and Texas A&M were to lose one more game each. They play each other, so one team would lose, but the other will likely make it in as an at-large bid.

Also, if Alabama isn't in the playoffs, then that means that it is more likely that Oregon or Oklahoma (or both) makes it into the playoffs which would be bad for us, because that would mean the second best teams in those conferences would get auto-bids ahead of BYU.

Here is my full breakdown of what needs to happen for us to make it in.
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=27346847

Also, to your point about us getting an auto qualifier. That is impossible. The highest ranked non-g5 conference champ gets an auto bid to the NY6 bowls. We cannot be a conference champ because we are independent. If another non-g5 team conference champ gets an auto-bid because Cincy is in the playoffs, then that would just mean, there is one less at-large spot for BYU. I don't know if another g5 conference champ would get an auto-bid. I actually think they would not.