1. BYU finishes ahead of Oklahoma: 55% chance

Rationale: Oklahoma clearly has better losses. They lost less convincingly to Baylor, and their other loss was to a Top 5 (assuming OK St wins their conference) team in a nail-biter on the road, not to a MWC team by multiple scores at home.  But BYU just as clearly has the better win, beating a ranked Utah team.  Ultimately, I think this one comes down to whether Utah can beat Oregon.  If Utah wins, they're a Top 12 or 13 team.  They'd jump Oregon, Iowa, ACC loser at the least and possibly also Oklahoma, ACC winner, even us.  That's a big-time win on our resume.  If they lose, they probably drop down to the 20-25 range at best.  It's still something, but no longer huge.  Long story short, if Utah wins, we're ahead of Oklahoma.  If not, we're behind.  Since Utah has a 55% shot of beating Oregon, we've got a 55% chance of being ahead of Oklahoma  

2. OK St beats Baylor convincingly enough to drop them behind us: 50% chance

Rationale: I don't think OK St has to embarrass Baylor, but it can't be a last-gasp win.  There's about a 60% chance that Oklahoma St wins this game, but I'll discount it to 50% given that there's some chance Baylor stays ahead if it's close enough.

3. Cincy beats Houston: 75% chance

Rationale: Houston is a good team and has a puncher's chance, but Cincy is the heavy favorite here for a reason

4. Michigan beats Iowa: 70-75% chance

Rationale:  Again, no disrespect to Iowa, but Michigan is in a different tier.  It's not a guarantee but Michigan is quite likely to win.

5. Bama beats Georgia: 35-40% chance

Rationale:  Georgia is really good. Bama has a chance to beat them for sure, but this is (at best) a 40/60 type game for them

6. OK State doesn't get the playoff spot: 50% chance

Rationale:  If everything above goes as described, then the real concern is Oklahoma St vs Cincy for the last playoff spot.  Honestly, that's as close to a coin flip as I can see.

So, assuming those are all independent cases (which seems a fair bet), the total odds for us making the NY6 are .55*.50*.75*.7*.4*.5 or 2.89%

Individual game predictions from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/