out the win at home on a 4th and 15 "hail mary", not sure how much the committee cares about road vs home, and it was in the snow that favored their run game and horrendous pass defense and penn states pass attack suffered (also no idea if the committee cares about stuff like that).

You are probably right, but my blue goggles are thinking we have a better shot at passing MSU tonight than we would of passing the Baylor team that thumped us even if they get blown out by Oklahoma State (committee appears to not punish teams much if at all for losing their CCG)