Last week, Michigan State was clearly ahead of us.

Since that time, they beat a 7-5 Penn State team that computers and advanced metrics are VERY high on (#14 by Sagarin, #23 by Massey Composite) in a very close game.

We beat a 4-7 USC team that ranks substantially lower (62 by Sagarin, 71 by Massey Composite) in a very close game.

Our best win (Utah) had a solid, as-expected victory over Colorado, winning 28-13 but not really changing their value.

Their best win (Michigan) had an overwhelming blowout victory over the #2 team in the country, greatly increasing the value of MSU's win.

I guess their loss to Ohio St no longer looks quite as good, but overall, neither resume changed much this week. But if one did improve more, it's Michigan State's.

So if they were ahead of us, and all the changes since then benefit them more, why would they suddenly be behind us now?