A lot of people think Sagarin is the most accurate predictor in the aggregate.

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Aug 19, 2022
10:15:41am

Abe Froman Truly Addicted User

Has anyone ever measured his accuracy team-by-team?

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Abe Froman

Previous username: Rise and Shout
Bio page: Abe Froman
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
Last login: Apr 28, 2024
Total posts: 86,643 (7,632 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41

The Toolman

8/19/22 10:01am

They finished 33rd last year

Indy Coug

8/19/22 10:02am

Fair and lots of opportunity for big wins early

The Toolman

8/19/22 10:03am

I wonder what formula he uses to calculate his anti-BYU bias into the rankings

2FarGone

8/19/22 10:03am

he took the bowl game performance and gave it a 90% weight in his formula

BYUMizzou

8/19/22 10:07am

He put Cincy at 31.. lol

byukarl

8/19/22 10:13am

8th among the new B12, lower than even KSU 🙁

Marc Spector

8/19/22 10:04am

Has Washington at 21? LOL... ok

Coug

8/19/22 10:13am

A lot of people think Sagarin is the most accurate predictor in the aggregate.

Abe Froman

8/19/22 10:15am

It generally takes several games into the season before Sagarin becomes reliable

ptcougr

8/19/22 10:20am

any system*

molodyets

8/19/22 10:27am

Sure, but that doesn’t address my question.

Abe Froman

8/19/22 11:49am

Here you can see which systems predicted accurately the most:

molodyets

8/19/22 10:28am

Seems like the Massey composite is about as good as anything else out there.

cougarfan84

8/19/22 10:43am

makes sense - the Massey composite averages like 80 other rankings to produce

cwilke1

8/19/22 10:51am

It's remarkable that the most brilliant, objective mathematical analysis we have

shoganai

8/19/22 12:04pm

That’s not a shocker, the people setting the spread are not dumb and they use just as much data. This is more telling

molodyets

8/19/22 12:50pm

I'm shocked Sagarin isn't higher on this list.

slatecoug

8/19/22 12:21pm

I have a fair amount of respect for Sagarin rankings...but no clue how he assigns preseason ranks. Any insights?

krindorr

8/19/22 10:17am

Washington at 21 is funny though and shows a huge flaw

Turnpike Lane

8/19/22 10:19am

Washington will be much better than last year - hired a great coach

Taccoug

8/19/22 4:47pm

any formula that still gives good weight to past seasons more than 2 years in

cwilke1

8/19/22 10:21am

Cincinnati at 31? Are you kidding me?

byukarl

8/19/22 10:25am

Okay - come up with a formula that has no outliers and accurately ranks almost 300 teams that each play 12

molodyets

8/19/22 10:30am

Are you arguing that Cincinnati should be higher ranked? That 31 is unfair to

cwilke1

8/19/22 10:33am

all of them do. Usually 4-5 years back because that is what makes them the most accurate.

molodyets

8/19/22 10:29am

Predicted 6-6 finish with no P5 wins

BYU Fan

8/19/22 10:53am

RE: Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41

imdocrob

8/19/22 11:04am

Or maybe the computers actually show that

I'mBatman

8/19/22 12:34pm

RE: Or maybe the computers actually show that

imdocrob

8/19/22 1:44pm

In fairness, it depends on what factors he uses to assess whether a team is 'better' or not

krindorr

8/19/22 1:51pm

RE: In fairness, it depends on what factors he uses to assess whether a team is

imdocrob

8/19/22 2:05pm

That's kind of the point, Connelly has his returning talent rankings. Sagarin prob doesn't use Connelly's ranks in his

krindorr

8/19/22 2:14pm

Because it’s preseason so it leans heavily on the prior four years and that fades a the season goes on to be only

molodyets

8/19/22 2:10pm

So this is just a subjective ranking systems with the mirage of data analysis

DazeofBlue

8/19/22 11:46am

I mean...probably not just based on what he wants, probably tested against actual performance

krindorr

8/19/22 12:01pm

What?

molodyets

8/19/22 12:50pm

They measured our defensive performance last year and found it lacking

I'mBatman

8/19/22 12:30pm

RE: Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41

canndyman

8/19/22 12:42pm

What about Texas then?

CoolB

8/19/22 12:49pm

Yeah... We're not Texas...

canndyman

8/19/22 5:52pm

I wonder if he factors in recruiting rankings

BYU Fan

8/19/22 1:37pm

It’s still using performances from 2018 & 2019 since it’s a preseason rating

molodyets

8/19/22 2:11pm

So what

stonecougar

8/19/22 3:59pm

Ouch! And the ranked teams we play are still ranked highly.

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