things that need to shake out to see the rest. I really think the PAC will lose the rankings bump once USC and UCLA leave. I think the SEC and Big 10 each will get 6-8 total teams on average between the two of them. Then the four other conference champs will take the other spots. On average I think the Big 12, ACC, and PAC will get 0-2 at-large teams between them and ND.
I would say the safest bet on the playoff is win the conference which makes the difficulty to do so the "easiest path" which is what I think many are arguing. That said, the better conference will have a better likelihood of getting more at large, which might be easier than winning the conference.
So much to shake out to really know.