with each other enough to the point that most of them don't have a desire to leave and staying together is everybody's first choice. (Technically going to the Big Ten is probably all of their first choices, but I'm assuming that isn't a realistic path for most if not all of those schools right now).

As such, if they can figure out a deal that they are all satisfied with and can agree to, I think they will sign that deal and stick together - as long as that deal is within the ballpark of the Big 12. Note that I don't think it needs to be equal to the B12 deal; it just has to get roughly in the same neighborhood (+/- 5-10 million/team).

IF, however, the media deal comes back and there are a couple of schools that feel like it is unacceptable (which is still a very real possibility), then I think you could see a few of them (Colorado, Arizona, maybe Arizona St.) start looking for other options. It wouldn't surprise me to hear that some of those schools have already talked to the Big 12 about contingencies (thus the rumors about Colorado/Arizona having conversations with the Big 12). But right now I think the schools likely view those discussions as nothing more than contingencies and their preference would be to stay in the PAC-12.


What does this mean? It means that I don't think ANYTHING will happen in realignment until the final PAC-12 contract details are completed and presented to the schools for their approval. Maybe that presentation isn't made public (since an announcement may not happen until AFTER everyone has signed the deal), but regardless the school presidents will know what the offer is before they make any decisions.