This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't

Report problem with this ad

Apr 6, 2020
6:56:55am

CSoul Truly Addicted User

This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't

crazy off just because of "no or delayed action being the worst case scenario" like the ardent defenders always tout. Even the areas that delayed heavily or didn't lock down near as much did not hit a FRACTION of the amount of deaths predicted. The models were wrong, fundamentally.

Report problem with this ad

CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: May 28, 2024
Total posts: 67,007 (14,032 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...

4/5/20 10:58pm

Nobody knows the true IFR. Without that all these theories are just a guess.

777

4/5/20 11:02pm

This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

cougXor

4/5/20 11:14pm

RE: This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

bythenumbers

4/6/20 8:54am

Doubling every 5 days after stay at home orders seems high, but just guessing.

Coach's Dad

4/5/20 11:09pm

Calculations are fine but he is assuming at every step

Tygger

4/5/20 11:10pm

Yup, working backwards from deaths is just a reasonable guess until...

Sumguy

4/5/20 11:31pm

That's what ALL early models do. Because we don't know the facts until it's over

flyzag

4/6/20 8:52am

I’d call it a first order model

webster242

4/5/20 11:28pm

As Csoul and other have stated exponential growth doesn’t maintain its growth.

johnnybyu

4/5/20 11:36pm

What is actually happening does not reflect what his model is showing.

BYUCLA

4/5/20 11:50pm

His worst assumption: doubling time is 5 days from March 12th on.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 12:08am

Yep it s a terrible model like so many of the early models. Grateful for doctor

johnnybyu

4/6/20 12:12am

Here’s what the actual original estimate says

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:08am

The doubling time from 3/12 forward was from people infected previously

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:41am

I understand that, but here why his doubling time is wrong.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 8:49am

It’s not like he didn’t come right out and change the doubling time after 3/12

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:58am

He didn’t address the doubling time problem at all

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:08am

Did you miss the part where he doubled the doubling time after 3/12?

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:42am

I suggest you read my post again, as you are not understanding

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:55am

"This message has been modified"

Sumguy

4/6/20 10:28am

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the model

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:37am

This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't

CSoul

4/6/20 6:56am

Don’t be absurd

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:37am

That is absurd.

HighHorse

4/6/20 8:44am

One key point you're missing

bythenumbers

4/6/20 7:10am

Report problem with this ad

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.

Report problem with this ad