My Account
Sign up, and CougarBoard will remember which categories you want to view.
Sign up
Report problem with this ad
Start a related thread
Start a related poll
Reply via Boardmail
Apr 6, 2020
9:42
:35
am
Sumguy
Project
Did you miss the part where he doubled the doubling time after 3/12?
That was your main beef, no?
No one saying you're wrong about doubling rates after 4/4, but it kind of seems like you're moving the goal posts you originally established.
Start a related thread
Start a related poll
Reply via Boardmail
Report problem with this ad
Sumguy
Bio page
Sumguy
Joined
Sep 8, 2014
Last login
Oct 19, 2020
Total posts
13,067 (482 FO)
Report problem with this ad
Messages
Author
Time
OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...
So it goes...
4/5/20 10:58pm
Nobody knows the true IFR. Without that all these theories are just a guess.
777
4/5/20 11:02pm
This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate
cougXor
4/5/20 11:14pm
RE: This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate
bythenumbers
4/6/20 8:54am
Doubling every 5 days after stay at home orders seems high, but just guessing.
Coach's Dad
4/5/20 11:09pm
Calculations are fine but he is assuming at every step
Tygger
4/5/20 11:10pm
Yup, working backwards from deaths is just a reasonable guess until...
Sumguy
4/5/20 11:31pm
That's what ALL early models do. Because we don't know the facts until it's over
flyzag
4/6/20 8:52am
I’d call it a first order model
webster242
4/5/20 11:28pm
As Csoul and other have stated exponential growth doesn’t maintain its growth.
johnnybyu
4/5/20 11:36pm
What is actually happening does not reflect what his model is showing.
BYUCLA
4/5/20 11:50pm
His worst assumption: doubling time is 5 days from March 12th on.
BYUCLA
4/6/20 12:08am
Yep it s a terrible model like so many of the early models. Grateful for doctor
johnnybyu
4/6/20 12:12am
Here’s what the actual original estimate says
Sumguy
4/6/20 9:08am
The doubling time from 3/12 forward was from people infected previously
Sumguy
4/6/20 12:41am
I understand that, but here why his doubling time is wrong.
BYUCLA
4/6/20 8:49am
It’s not like he didn’t come right out and change the doubling time after 3/12
Sumguy
4/6/20 8:58am
He didn’t address the doubling time problem at all
BYUCLA
4/6/20 9:08am
Did you miss the part where he doubled the doubling time after 3/12?
Sumguy
4/6/20 9:42am
I suggest you read my post again, as you are not understanding
BYUCLA
4/6/20 9:55am
"This message has been modified"
Sumguy
4/6/20 10:28am
I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the model
Sumguy
4/6/20 12:37am
This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't
CSoul
4/6/20 6:56am
Don’t be absurd
Sumguy
4/6/20 8:37am
That is absurd.
HighHorse
4/6/20 8:44am
One key point you're missing
bythenumbers
4/6/20 7:10am
Report problem with this ad
Posting on CougarBoard
In order to post, you will need to either
sign up
or
log in
.
Report problem with this ad