Yep it s a terrible model like so many of the early models. Grateful for doctor

Apr 6, 2020
12:12:56am

johnnybyu All-American

S but the models by the numbers guys seem much more accurate after tracking Europe numbers for the past few weeks and now the US. I did grad school at UCLA though so we are maybe too much on the same page.

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johnnybyu

Bio page: johnnybyu
Joined: Jun 6, 2002
Last login: May 10, 2024
Total posts: 14,859 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

OK, I admit it, I'm not a numbers guy, but for those that are, how are this...

So it goes...

4/5/20 10:58pm

Nobody knows the true IFR. Without that all these theories are just a guess.

777

4/5/20 11:02pm

This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

cougXor

4/5/20 11:14pm

RE: This ^^^^. This guy is using 1% IFR...which is still a wild estimate

bythenumbers

4/6/20 8:54am

Doubling every 5 days after stay at home orders seems high, but just guessing.

Coach's Dad

4/5/20 11:09pm

Calculations are fine but he is assuming at every step

Tygger

4/5/20 11:10pm

Yup, working backwards from deaths is just a reasonable guess until...

Sumguy

4/5/20 11:31pm

That's what ALL early models do. Because we don't know the facts until it's over

flyzag

4/6/20 8:52am

I’d call it a first order model

webster242

4/5/20 11:28pm

As Csoul and other have stated exponential growth doesn’t maintain its growth.

johnnybyu

4/5/20 11:36pm

What is actually happening does not reflect what his model is showing.

BYUCLA

4/5/20 11:50pm

His worst assumption: doubling time is 5 days from March 12th on.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 12:08am

Yep it s a terrible model like so many of the early models. Grateful for doctor

johnnybyu

4/6/20 12:12am

Here’s what the actual original estimate says

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:08am

The doubling time from 3/12 forward was from people infected previously

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:41am

I understand that, but here why his doubling time is wrong.

BYUCLA

4/6/20 8:49am

It’s not like he didn’t come right out and change the doubling time after 3/12

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:58am

He didn’t address the doubling time problem at all

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:08am

Did you miss the part where he doubled the doubling time after 3/12?

Sumguy

4/6/20 9:42am

I suggest you read my post again, as you are not understanding

BYUCLA

4/6/20 9:55am

"This message has been modified"

Sumguy

4/6/20 10:28am

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the model

Sumguy

4/6/20 12:37am

This refusal to admit fault in the models is laughably insecure. They weren't

CSoul

4/6/20 6:56am

Don’t be absurd

Sumguy

4/6/20 8:37am

That is absurd.

HighHorse

4/6/20 8:44am

One key point you're missing

bythenumbers

4/6/20 7:10am

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