Since there is going to be no NCAA tournament this year, I decided to do a simulation of the NCAA tournament based upon my final projected bracket for the season (http://rfsbracketscience.blogspot.com/p/current-projected-bracket.html). Rather than simply do a quick W/L simulation I decided I wanted to go a little more in-depth with it. I adjusted the depth charts for the teams based on minutes played in recent games and used some online software to project the outcomes along with play-by-play. Here I will include the results of the games along w/ a brief recap. This will be broken up into different segments and will likely be posted over the course of several days (as there is no way I'm going to do this all in 1 sitting).

Round of 64 games in Greensboro, NC:

3 Maryland 75
14 Belmont 60

Both teams trade baskets early. Belmont goes on a 10-2 run to take a 19-10 lead. With 3 minutes left in the half Belmont is still up 26-20. Maryland goes on 15-7 run to take a 2 point lead with 33 seconds left in the half. Belmont scores a FT and then Adam Kunkel buries a jumpshot at the buzzer to give Belmont a 36-35 lead at the break. Maryland starts off the 2nd half on a 19-4 to take a 54-42 lead. From that point on Belmont can't get any closer than 9 and Maryland cruises to the 15 point win. Player of the game is Jalen Smith with 17 points and 15 rebounds.


6 Houston 72
11 Stanford 83

After 4 early lead changes Houston takes a 17-12 lead 4 minutes into the game. Game remains close with Stanford retaking the lead 23-22 after a da Silva scoop shot. 4 more lead changes and Stanford takes a 40-37 lead into the half. Game stays close in the 2nd half with Houston retaking hte lead on a Fabian White dunk with 7:25 left, but that is short lived after Daejon Davis hits a 3 pointer on the other end. Neither team can pull away as Stanford still lead by just 3 at 72-69 with just 3:13 left to play. From there, Stanford goes on a 9-0 run capped off by an Oscar da Silva contested turnaround from 10 feet to take the 81-69 lead with just over a minute to go which is enough to secure the victory. Player of the game is Oscar da Silva with 21 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assists.


2 Duke 89
16 Northern Kentucky 78

NKU takes the early lead but Duke keeps things closes (within 5 points). NKU finally extends their lead to 6 on an 18 ft jumper by Dantez Walton with 9 minutes left in the half. Back to back threes from Justin Robinson and Tre Jones for Duke tie it up. After some back and forth play Duke takes the halftime 45-43 lead off a Vernon Carey putback. NKU is back up 54-53 early in the 2nd half at which point Duke goes on a 15-1 to go up 68-55 with 10:51 left. NKU cuts the lead to 3 on a Dantez Walton floater with 4:47 left, but Duke scores the next 10 points to put the game out of reach. Player of the game is Tre Jones with 26 points, 6 rebounds, 5 steals, and 4 assists.


7 Colorado 84
10 Indiana 73

Colorado races to an early 11-4 lead led by 7 points from Tyler Bey. Indiana cuts it to 22-20 on a Justin Smith 3 pointer with 9:15 left in the half. Colorado responds with a 10-0 run and ends up with a 48-37 halftime lead. Indiana slowly whittles the lead down to 4 with about 11 minutes left, but that's the closest they would get as Colorado slowly pulls away and ends up with the 11 point win. Player of the game is Tyler Bey with 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks.


Round of 64 games in Cleveland, OH:

3 Michigan St 79
14 Hofstra 77

Michigan St runs out to a 15-5 lead thanks to an early 10-0 run. Hofstra cuts the lead to 2 on an eli Pemberton 3 pointer from the right wing to make it 22-20. Michigan St expand the lead back againt to as many as 8, but Hofstra cuts it back to 2 again with just 16 seconds left after Tareq Coburn hits a 3pt jumper from straight away. Thomas Kithier from MSU then hits a buzzer beating jumper to give Michigan St the 40-36 lead at the break. 2nd half is very close with several lead changes and neither time able to get more than a 4 point lead through most of the half. Hofstra is up 70-67 with 5:30 left in the game when Michigan St goes on an 11-2 run highlighted by an Xavier Tillman 3 point jumper from the right corner resulting in a 78-72 lead. Tareq Coburn from Hofstra makes a contested jumpshot follwed by a 3 pointer from the right wing to cut the lead to 1 with 0:48 left. Michigan St misses their next shot but grabs the offensive rebound forcing Hofstra to have to foul. Kyle Ahrens only makes the front end of the 1-and-1 but then misses the back end. Hofstra gets the rebound with just 0:13 left but Kevin Schutte misses badly on a jumpshot attempt at the buzzer allowing Michigan St to escape with the win. Player of the game is Xavier Tillman with 15 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals.


6 Virginia 62
11 Utah St 77

Close game in the first half. Virginia maintains a lead throughout but Utah St keeps it close. Virginia takes a 17-12 lead with a Diakite layup at the 9:05 mark. They expand the lead to 6 on a diakite 3 point play with 6:36 remaining and then to 7 on a Woldetensae 3 pt shot with 3:12 on the clock. Sam Merrill makes a contested 3 pointer to cut the lead to 2 followed by a couple Justin Bean FTs to tie the game up with 0:39 left in the half. Virginia scores on their final possession of the half to take a 37-35 lead to the locker room. Utah St scores 6 straight points to start the 2nd half and takes a 4 point lead. Virginia ties the game at 41 with 16:42 to go. Utah St then goes on a 15-3 run to open up an 11 point lead at 56-45 with 12:12 left. From that point on the closes Virginia would get is within 8 points as they only score 5 points in the final 7 minutes of the game. Player of the game is Justin Bean with 13 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals.


1 Dayton 90
16 Winthrop 73

Winthrop takes the early 9-6 lead and extends it to 28-19 halfway through the 1st half. Dayton goes on a 17-3 run to take a 36-31 lead with 5:01 on the clock. Winthrop ties it back up at 45 before Dayton scores a couple buckets to take a 49-45 lead at half. In the 2nd half Winthrop scores on a 4 point play right out of the game to tie it up. Dayton responds with an 8-0 run. Winthrop bring is back to 3 with 14:30 left at which point Dayton goes on a 17-2 run to take a commanding 18 point lead with 10 minutes to go. Dayton then coasts to the 17 point win. Player of the game is Jalen Crutcher with 22 points, 6 reboundsd, 3 assists, and 3 steals.


8 Saint Mary's 70
9 Florida 80

Florida jumps out to a quick 8-2 lead. That's followed by another 12-4 Florida run giving them a 30-16 lead with 8:07 left in the half. They expand the lead to 41-20. A 10-2 run by SMC to end the half brings them within 11 at 50-39. SMC scores 5 quick points to start the 2nd half to cut the lead to 6. They then pull within 3 at 53-50 after a Kuhse 3 pointer. Florida responds with an 8-1 run to extend their lead back out to 10. Florida coasts from there to the 10 point win. Player of the game is Andrew Nembhard with 17 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals.