Since there is going to be no NCAA tournament this year, I decided to do a simulation of the NCAA tournament based upon my final projected bracket for the season (http://rfsbracketscience.blogspot.com/p/current-projected-bracket.html). Rather than simply do a quick W/L simulation I decided I wanted to go a little more in-depth with it. I adjusted the depth charts for the teams based on minutes played in recent games and used some online software to project the outcomes along with play-by-play. Here I will include the results of the games along w/ a brief recap. This will be broken up into different segments and will likely be posted over the course of several days (as there is no way I'm going to do this all in 1 sitting).

Round of 32 games in St. Louis, MO:

1 Baylor 71
8 Illinois 61

Illinois goes up 7-0 in the first 4 minutes of the game. Baylor scores the next 15 to take a 15-7 lead. Alan Griffin hits back-to-back 3s for Illinois to tie the game up at 17. Baylor continues with the lead but Illinois keeps it within 3 points and Baylor has the 30-27 halftime lead. Close game continues into the 2nd half with Baylor up 38-34 at the 15:18 mark. Both teams trade 8-0 runs to put the score at 46-42 with 10:00 to go. Illinois ties it up at 49, but Baylor goes on a 19-5 run to put the game away. Player of the game is MaCio Teague with 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists.


3 Creighton 85
11 Richmond 92

5 points from Nick Sherod and 6 from Blake Francis gives Richmond an early 15-4 lead in the game. Richmond maintains the lead for several minutes, but back to back 3 pointers from Marcus Zegarowski gives Creighton a 1 point lead at the midway point of the 1st half. Neither team leads by more than 2 the rest the half, and several ties and lead changes later the score is tied at 40 going to the locker room. Richmond takes the lead with about 11:30 left but can't ever really pull away as they are still up by just 3 points (78-75) with 3:25 remaining. Richmond exteds the lead to 8, but back-to-back 3s by Ty-Shon Alexander and Christian Bishop brings Creighton back within 3 with just 0:26 left. Sherod and Francis both make a pair of FTs in the final seconds to seal the victory for the Spiders as we get a 2nd double-digit seed in the Sweet 16. Player of the game is Nick Sherod with 25 points and 7 rebounds. Blake Francis also added 20 points of his own.


Round of 32 games in Spokane, WA:

1 Gonzaga 97
8 Arizona 95

After a couple early ties Gonzaga makes a small push to go up 19-10 just over 5 minutes in. Gonzaga is still up 7 when Arizona scores 8 straight to take the lead 27-26. Both teams trade the lead over the final 7 minutes of the half and Arizona goes into the break up 44-41. Game remains close in the 2nd half. Arizona is up 5 with 13:33 on the clock when Gonzaga goes on a 10-run including 8 straight scored by Admon Gilder to take a 65-60 lead of their own. Three straight 3s from Arizona gives Arizona back the lead, Gonzaga responds by making back-to-back 3s of their own to retake it. Gonzaga extends the lead to 6 points, but Dylan Smith scores 5 straight to bring Arizona back within 1. Gonzaga continues to make shots and FTs, but Arizona won't go away as they tie the game at 90 on a Christian Koloko dunk and then again at 92 on a Josh Green layup with just 0:46 left. Killian tillie makes a couple of clutch FTs after being fouled on the shot, but Stone Gettings knocks down a 3 pointer from the right wing to give Arizona the lead with 0:25 on the clock. Cory Kispert then responds by making his 7th 3-ponter of the game with 0:14 left. Joel Ayayi the swats away the game-tying shot attempt at the buzzer. Player of the game is Corey Kispert who had a monster game with 32 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and shooting 7-11 from the 3 point line including the game winner.


14 Eastern Washington 84
6 BYU 89

Both teams trade a few baskets to start the game. Eastern Michigan makes a couple 3s to go up by 6, but then Toolson buries a 3 pt shot from the left corner to cut the lead to 17-14. Eastern Washington goes on a 10-2 run to take a 27-16 lead with 9:06 left in the half. BYU is still down 8 with 6:20 left when Barcello drills a couple of back-to-back 3s to cut the lead back to 2. EWU scores the next 5, but a Seljaas 3 and another Barcello 3 brings BYU within 1. EWU scores 5 straight again an ultimately takes a 48-42 lead to the locker room. After multiple missed shots by both teams, EWU connectes on 2 straight 3 pointers to extend their lead to 54-42 early in the 2nd half. Haws and Childs both makes shots to cut it to 8, and then shortly later a Nixon 3 pointer cuts it to 5. After trading baskets EWU is still up 62-55 with 11:33 to go. BYU then goes on an 8-0 run consisting of a Childs floater and a couple of Harding 3s to regain the lead 63-62. Both teams exchange FTs and a Kim aiken jumper puts EWU back up by 1. TJ Haws then proceeds to drill a couple of 3 point shots and make a reverse layup to give byU a 73-66 lead with 6 minutes left. Toolson extends the lead to 82-74 with 1:29 left on the clock Casson Rouse knocks down a 3 for EWU followed by Seljaas knocking in a pull-up jumper keeping the lead at 7 with 0:58 left. Rouse is fould on the other end making both FTs bring it back to 5. With only 41 seconds EWU resorts to fouling. Childs only converts 1 of 2 at the FT line. Jack Perry then knocks in a jumper to bring the margin to 4. Barcello makes both his FTs to extend it to 6, but then Perry drills a 3 pt jumper to cut it down to 3. However, there is only 5 seconds left on the clock. Barcello is immediately fouled and makes both FTs again to seal the game. Jake Toolson steals the imbounds pass for good measure and the game is over. EWU shot a blistering 50% from the 3 point line, but BYU shot an even better 52.4%. Barcello and Haws both had huge baskets in the game, but player of the game ends up going to Yoeli Childs who was consistent throughout with 20 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals.


Next post will include 2nd round games in Greensboro (3 Maryland vs 11 Stanford, 2 Duke vs 7 Colorado) and Cleveland (3 Michigan St vs 11 Utah St, 1 Dayton vs 9 Florida).