I think it would also lengthen the amount of time before you reach the peak,

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Mar 26, 2020
12:31:05am

chilango Intervention Needed

probably by a lot if there is no significant social distancing or quarantining. Especially in bigger countries.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:31:05am

Message modified by chilango on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:32:15am

Message modified by chilango on Mar 26, 2020 at 12:33:42am

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chilango

Bio page: chilango
Joined: Jul 23, 2009
Last login: Dec 27, 2020
Total posts: 25,771 (33 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

I've been working on overlaying daily death data by country (links inside)

CSoul

3/25/20 11:36pm

Spain - yikes.

cougfanblue

3/25/20 11:40pm

Netherlands is also on a similar trajectory

CSoul

3/25/20 11:45pm

The U.K. too. And New York.

chilango

3/25/20 11:51pm

Obviously I would have to lower the start number, but Washington

CSoul

3/25/20 11:56pm

I think Washington has definitely hit its peak. UW hospital is slowing down, and

wabluecoug

3/26/20 12:01am

Yes it does. Much of their outbreak was confined to a large nursing home.

CougarThug

3/26/20 12:09am

I think they hit a peak even throwing that out. But with states and cities

CSoul

3/26/20 12:12am

I would be interested in Japan as we were supposed to go their for spring break.

Osteotome

3/26/20 2:11am

That's more a reflection on the amount of people they're testing. Which until this week was not much at all.

Cheesy Gordita

3/26/20 5:48am

I think closing schools and churches and gatherings was enough

Acorn

3/26/20 3:27am

Really makes that China data look believable, doesn’t it

Mike Honcho

3/25/20 11:46pm

But their peak still hit at the same exact time as Italy and Iran

CSoul

3/25/20 11:48pm

Yeah, less the shape and more the numbers is what I’m skeptical about

Mike Honcho

3/25/20 11:48pm

They incinerated their data.

cougfanblue

3/25/20 11:53pm

I'd guess urbanization rate, life expectancy and climate correlate strongly with

bruincoug

3/25/20 11:49pm

The only difference seems to be the height of the peak, not the timeframe

CSoul

3/25/20 11:52pm

Well, kind of. All of them went into lockdown and took dramatic action to try to

chilango

3/25/20 11:58pm

I think it controls for the peak size, not the shape

CSoul

3/25/20 11:59pm

I think it would also lengthen the amount of time before you reach the peak,

chilango

3/26/20 12:31am

Then there would be a difference between Iran, Italy, and China

CSoul

3/26/20 12:39am

Agreed...

777

3/26/20 12:00am

I mean why the difference in peak size

bruincoug

3/26/20 12:06am

I would expect the US to have a longer timeframe or perhaps multiple peaks

BYUCLA

3/26/20 12:06am

Seems likely. I expect early peaks to be highest, though (NY/NJ)

bruincoug

3/26/20 12:07am

Not much longer. And many areas just won't really have a "peak"

CSoul

3/26/20 12:10am

Right, the US is so large that it is more like a continent. For comparisons to

chilango

3/26/20 12:12am

I am getting state data and will link them tomorrow

CSoul

3/26/20 12:13am

For smaller states, you could also group them together into “natural” regions

chilango

3/26/20 12:19am

It's not like the virus is traveling by horseback. It's traveling by airplane.

777

3/26/20 12:17am

This time last week you denied it was a problem. Now it's flying.

ClackamasCoug

3/26/20 2:19am

Link? I've been saying it's everywhere for the last month.

777

3/26/20 2:26am

I don’t think anyone’s contended at any point that it’s not contagious

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 2:27am

If it was traveling by airplane everywhere then everyone

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 2:51am

Of course it's traveling by airplane everywhere. How do you think it's

777

3/26/20 3:10am

Your basing your assumption off of China?

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 3:45am

I just offered an explanation and they've been offered elsewhere. There are

777

3/26/20 4:59am

We differ in opinion then, but I hope you are right

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 10:44am

I think places like Utah will just have a more slow natural curve even when

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