I would be interested in Japan as we were supposed to go their for spring break.

Mar 26, 2020
2:11:15am

Osteotome All-American

So I have been following them since they had more than double the number of US cases and they still have only 1200 or so. They seemed to not really peak. I’ve seen about 30 countries pass them

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Osteotome

Bio page: Osteotome
Joined: May 30, 2011
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
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Messages

Author

Time

I've been working on overlaying daily death data by country (links inside)

CSoul

3/25/20 11:36pm

Spain - yikes.

cougfanblue

3/25/20 11:40pm

Netherlands is also on a similar trajectory

CSoul

3/25/20 11:45pm

The U.K. too. And New York.

chilango

3/25/20 11:51pm

Obviously I would have to lower the start number, but Washington

CSoul

3/25/20 11:56pm

I think Washington has definitely hit its peak. UW hospital is slowing down, and

wabluecoug

3/26/20 12:01am

Yes it does. Much of their outbreak was confined to a large nursing home.

CougarThug

3/26/20 12:09am

I think they hit a peak even throwing that out. But with states and cities

CSoul

3/26/20 12:12am

I would be interested in Japan as we were supposed to go their for spring break.

Osteotome

3/26/20 2:11am

That's more a reflection on the amount of people they're testing. Which until this week was not much at all.

Cheesy Gordita

3/26/20 5:48am

I think closing schools and churches and gatherings was enough

Acorn

3/26/20 3:27am

Really makes that China data look believable, doesn’t it

Mike Honcho

3/25/20 11:46pm

But their peak still hit at the same exact time as Italy and Iran

CSoul

3/25/20 11:48pm

Yeah, less the shape and more the numbers is what I’m skeptical about

Mike Honcho

3/25/20 11:48pm

They incinerated their data.

cougfanblue

3/25/20 11:53pm

I'd guess urbanization rate, life expectancy and climate correlate strongly with

bruincoug

3/25/20 11:49pm

The only difference seems to be the height of the peak, not the timeframe

CSoul

3/25/20 11:52pm

Well, kind of. All of them went into lockdown and took dramatic action to try to

chilango

3/25/20 11:58pm

I think it controls for the peak size, not the shape

CSoul

3/25/20 11:59pm

I think it would also lengthen the amount of time before you reach the peak,

chilango

3/26/20 12:31am

Then there would be a difference between Iran, Italy, and China

CSoul

3/26/20 12:39am

Agreed...

777

3/26/20 12:00am

I mean why the difference in peak size

bruincoug

3/26/20 12:06am

I would expect the US to have a longer timeframe or perhaps multiple peaks

BYUCLA

3/26/20 12:06am

Seems likely. I expect early peaks to be highest, though (NY/NJ)

bruincoug

3/26/20 12:07am

Not much longer. And many areas just won't really have a "peak"

CSoul

3/26/20 12:10am

Right, the US is so large that it is more like a continent. For comparisons to

chilango

3/26/20 12:12am

I am getting state data and will link them tomorrow

CSoul

3/26/20 12:13am

For smaller states, you could also group them together into “natural” regions

chilango

3/26/20 12:19am

It's not like the virus is traveling by horseback. It's traveling by airplane.

777

3/26/20 12:17am

This time last week you denied it was a problem. Now it's flying.

ClackamasCoug

3/26/20 2:19am

Link? I've been saying it's everywhere for the last month.

777

3/26/20 2:26am

I don’t think anyone’s contended at any point that it’s not contagious

Mike Honcho

3/26/20 2:27am

If it was traveling by airplane everywhere then everyone

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 2:51am

Of course it's traveling by airplane everywhere. How do you think it's

777

3/26/20 3:10am

Your basing your assumption off of China?

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 3:45am

I just offered an explanation and they've been offered elsewhere. There are

777

3/26/20 4:59am

We differ in opinion then, but I hope you are right

kimdaddy35

3/26/20 10:44am

I think places like Utah will just have a more slow natural curve even when

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