The last part of my post addressed that. Doing it earlier

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Mar 29, 2020
10:36:45am

CSoul Intervention Needed

The last part of my post addressed that. Doing it earlier

does reduce the deaths (the intensity of the peak and the subsequent overwhelming of the medical system) but the curve just doesn't last near as long as the original dire predictions. Almost every week the predicted deaths and duration drop in all countries from the original modelers. As people see Italy come out of it those will drop even more (my prediction).

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 29, 2020 at 10:36:45am

Message modified by CSoul on Mar 29, 2020 at 10:40:54am

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CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: May 1, 2024
Total posts: 66,626 (13,846 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Flattening the curve seems like a myth to me

korihor

3/29/20 10:02am

epidemiological statisticians disagree. There are several models

Archaea

3/29/20 10:06am

2-3 months?

HRCougar

3/29/20 10:09am

When you have two bad options, you take the least bad.

Archaea

3/29/20 10:16am

There are more than 2 options.

boogers

3/29/20 10:18am

I choose the false dichotomy.

cracka

3/29/20 10:52am

you just don't want to "save lives" over saving your 401k

boogers

3/29/20 11:01am

Would make economic damage>>>>lives saved

boogers

3/29/20 10:17am

And do we want enough people getting sick now up to hospital capacity to avoid a

Odysseus

3/29/20 10:07am

It's shocking to me that vaccines have been around since the 1800's and it

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:07am

It doesn't. The FDA does.

Backcountry

3/29/20 10:08am

You would think in the midst of a pandemic they'd cut all the red tape.

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:09am

I've seen enough zombie movies to know this could be a problem.

svenot

3/29/20 10:11am

Sadly I think this is exactly why the public isn't asking for the FDA's head

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:12am

This is untrue. There are shortcuts but to allow a vaccine to be used

Archaea

3/29/20 10:11am

Compassionate use is a shortcut that can be used. Link.

Archaea

3/29/20 10:14am

Did that in 1974 for the Swine flu and the live vaccine killed a bunch of people

bluelands

3/29/20 10:21am

It's not 1974 anymore.

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:24am

^^This guy volunteers to be the first test subject.

SPgoofyft

3/29/20 11:06am

I already have it lol

Harbinger

3/29/20 11:10am

Some just liked Jimmy Carter's accent. Personally, I thought he was nutty.

CougarThug

3/29/20 12:01pm

Peanutty

pegushin

3/29/20 1:23pm

If this was killing say 10% or more across all demographics they would

ABCoug

3/29/20 11:17am

Unless you are fixated on intermediate endpoints, you need time to

Archaea

3/29/20 10:10am

What’s more shocking is the number of people who refuse to get the ones we

Nakedbootleg

3/29/20 11:13am

The answer all along has been to beef up ICU capacity, let people go about their

Backcountry

3/29/20 10:07am

That sounds a bit sloppy but we could modify the German

Archaea

3/29/20 10:28am

Nursing home access in ID was restricted three weeks ago.

CougarThug

3/29/20 12:04pm

How do you beef up ICU capacity?

BYU'01

3/29/20 11:24am

Start manufacturing new machines early and utilize OR ventilators as needed.

Backcountry

3/29/20 11:26am

None of which builds the buildings necessary to hold all those icu beds

BYU '80

3/29/20 1:09pm

Theres nothing special about an icu bed. Any unut can be turned into overflow.

Backcountry

3/29/20 1:34pm

Uh not really. Might be true in some cases but not like you imagine.

BYU '80

3/29/20 5:53pm

Best answer is not to put people in the icu. Case fatality is uncertain but

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 11:26am

Doesnt compare to the economic toll this is taking.

Backcountry

3/29/20 11:27am

That’s not the point.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 3:49pm

What is the smartest way to go?

Stalwartbob

3/29/20 11:28am

Social distancing. Slow transmission. Give science time to find an answer.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 3:51pm

This is the point of it. Just need enough slowdown to get the ICUs ready with

Resurgens

3/29/20 2:46pm

Except less people would "go about their business than you would think"

hardcorecoug

3/30/20 3:32pm

Would China be reopening Wuhan if the threat

bald man

3/29/20 10:10am

Yes. The idea that China values human life is laughable.

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:12am

They may not value it like a western society, but they

bald man

3/29/20 10:18am

They won't. There's nothing about this that can cost them anything.

Harbinger

3/29/20 10:25am

True. China doesn't care but doesn't wish to lose face with the world.

Archaea

3/29/20 10:30am

I imagine it is still running through China rapidly.....

beauso79

3/29/20 11:29am

The Chinese people don't believe their own government's CV-19 propaganda

CougarThug

3/29/20 12:07pm

It’s a hoax

Stalwartbob

3/29/20 12:18pm

All they have to do is use their defective tests. They can say they are testing

N8Dawg

3/29/20 3:59pm

I'm very optimistic actually

CSoul

3/29/20 10:15am

I agree with most of that, but I think NYC was late to the quarantine game.

3/29/20 10:31am

Kept the subway system open....

Benfica1

3/29/20 10:36am

The last part of my post addressed that. Doing it earlier

CSoul

3/29/20 10:36am

Minor point of contention with first sentence of second paragraph

Resurgens

3/29/20 2:48pm

What about NY has turned/peaked?

BYU'01

3/29/20 3:48pm

This video is worth your time to help understand various factors

Indy Coug

3/29/20 10:18am

a couple comments

korihor

3/29/20 1:40pm

Quick, mandatory testing of everyone admitted to a public event to the rescue.

JmThms

3/30/20 7:41am

I think widespread, regular testing is key. I could see normal life partially

Hypnotoad

3/29/20 10:36am

Or just use a temperature check and everyone knows to check every morning

ABCoug

3/29/20 11:21am

Agreed

BYU '80

3/29/20 1:16pm

This. The church asked my missionary son to check every morning and evening.

Benfica1

3/29/20 1:36pm

Why did the loving, merciful God make/let this happen?

Stalwartbob

3/29/20 11:23am

Answer: Because w/o struggle & difficulty there is no growth. Period.

BleedCougarBlue2

3/29/20 3:08pm

This may be difficult for people

AZ Coug

3/30/20 12:12am

It is difficult for me and I have a question or two regarding your theory

Stalwartbob

3/30/20 2:26am

History and the scriptures are full of examples of famine, war & pestilence

Benfica1

3/30/20 8:24am

You are correct, life happens.

Stalwartbob

3/30/20 11:00am

Ask him yourself.

Benfica1

3/30/20 11:18am

Sorry to hear about your Father, smoking is a terrible habit.

Stalwartbob

3/30/20 12:07pm

The main point of flattening the curve isn't to reduce the total number of cases

mudpupper

3/29/20 11:50am

If you want to educate yourself: watch this to learn the math and why/how

flyzag

3/29/20 11:50am

It's kind of a hit or myth proposition anyway.

CougarThug

3/29/20 11:56am

Myth or not

Zoobieman

3/29/20 1:02pm

Boardname checks out.

StalwartBraveTrue

3/29/20 5:00pm

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