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Mar 30, 2020
3:54:31pm
Zoobieman Truly Addicted User
Strong Points
I will give a simplified list of my thoughts:

*Note: It has been a while and I forgot how to use the degrees of freedom to alter the data, but I remember that once you had over 50 data points it made little difference.

Susceptible Population (721/3711)
Mean: 19.4%, 95% CI ( 18.1% - 20.73%)

Case Fatality Rate (10/721)
Mean: 1.39%, 95% CI ( 0.5% - 2.21%)

Total Fatality (10/3711)
Mean: 0.27%

Ro >>> As you stated enclosed cruise ship with same air ventillation, I dont think getting this number would be all that helpful and does not help determine transmission in the real world.

Reasons to think the death rate could be lower:
Older population Average age

Reasons to think the death rate could be higher:
No lack of medical care like possibly overrun hospitals ain Italy, NYC, America doesn't "flatten the curve".
There are still 15 patients in critical condition, and about 100 others that have not been completely cleared medically. if just 10 more of these people die, you have to double all previous numbers.
Those on the Cruise Ship are typically in better health than the average population for their age, have less vices in life, and have better routine healthcare.


"(you'd think someone at the WHO or CDC would have tested an entire population in a town, city, or even a neighborhood to get better data...not to mention we're not testing anti-bodies at all, but for some reason we're in a data vacuum on real data but inundated with shoddy numbers using "confirmed cases" every day)."
Agreed!
Zoobieman
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Zoobieman
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Apr 28, 2024
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