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Apr 1, 2020
8:35
:37
pm
SpiffCoug
Truly Addicted User
All I know is that in 3 weeks time, we here in Utah are going to be singing a very different tune.
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SpiffCoug
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SpiffCoug
Joined
Sep 12, 2002
Last login
Jul 24, 2021
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Messages
Author
Time
Countries updated. Ok, let's do an exercise on how bad these models are off
CSoul
4/1/20 8:00pm
It's almost like the global warming models. Made to predict catastrophe.
Harbinger
4/1/20 8:04pm
Hooray, social distancing and shutting stuff down worked better than
SandYFan
4/1/20 8:07pm
Or the models were terrible from the beginning
BYU '80
4/1/20 8:08pm
Indeed, the predictions are terrible. Good job, everyone. We stopped it!
SandYFan
4/1/20 8:08pm
???
BYU '80
4/1/20 8:11pm
No, you meant to say we based our reaction on bad models and will likely
boogers
4/1/20 8:30pm
Yeah, even those models were way off.
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:16pm
Are you saying the experts who have clear conflicts of interest
BYU '80
4/1/20 8:07pm
What conflicts of interest? What possible reason could someone WANT to
SandYFan
4/1/20 8:08pm
Seriously. The worse things sound the more power
BYU '80
4/1/20 8:09pm
My opinion is that noone in charge wants to downplay this thing- and they're not
Little Britches
4/1/20 8:21pm
Overreacting is actually a big deal. A huge deal.
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:30pm
Not as much as underreacting
Little Britches
4/1/20 8:34pm
Not necessarily true.
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:35pm
Overreacting 1% is very likely less worse than underreacting 1%
Little Britches
4/1/20 8:39pm
You think this is a 1% overreaction?
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:40pm
Nope. I think it's a 25% overreaction. But we won't know until the data comes in
Little Britches
4/1/20 8:42pm
We have to get into the depression to see why we did it.
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:43pm
To avoid 4M possible deaths. Maybe more since we don't know what we are dealing
Little Britches
4/1/20 8:46pm
Lol, you still believe those models?
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:47pm
False. New York is releasing felons from prison and a pastor has been arrested
Ash
4/1/20 8:39pm
$$$$$$$$$$
Bullrider
4/1/20 10:11pm
It seems to me a good thing if the models were off
coolcats
4/1/20 8:18pm
So you are glad we based the coming economic depression on bad data?
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:20pm
Where did he say that? Bizarre read.
AtomicHamster
4/1/20 8:21pm
It was implied. Inadvertently, but nonetheless, implied.
Harbinger
4/1/20 8:40pm
It’s almost like you’re reading your preconceived bias into everything
coolcats
4/1/20 8:44pm
So do tell. Since we agree that models are way off, are we still doing the
Samsonite
4/1/20 8:47pm
A) I’m not conceding the models are way off
coolcats
4/1/20 8:57pm
That was the result of the bad predictions - huge over reactions that hurt the
johnnybyu
4/1/20 8:45pm
I love that people on here keep sticking with this idea that the virus itself
Mitty
4/2/20 11:16am
It would have been minimal. The numbers aren't problematic to the economy, look
Harbinger
4/2/20 11:20am
So you're saying their models we're pretty accurate for Italy and Netherlands
Cougar8Duck
4/1/20 8:23pm
You just want to kill people.
boogers
4/1/20 8:29pm
Given Sweden is 13 days from their 10th death, and you have USA at
Plato
4/1/20 8:35pm
All I know is that in 3 weeks time, we here in Utah are going to be singing a very different tune.
SpiffCoug
4/1/20 8:35pm
What tune? What are you predicting?
Plato
4/1/20 8:41pm
A sad one
flyzag
4/1/20 9:02pm
What's your prediction? I honestly don't think Wasatch front will look
Plato
4/1/20 9:07pm
I believe it will be worse than that.
flyzag
4/1/20 9:28pm
What % of the population are you predicting gets it over those 18 months?
Plato
4/1/20 9:36pm
Michael Osterholm has influenced my thinking quite a bit.
flyzag
4/1/20 9:42pm
So. That's going to happen despite distancing in your projection.
Plato
4/1/20 9:48pm
Distancing doesn't prevent anything. It only slows it. The only thing that will
flyzag
4/1/20 10:00pm
So you agree that distancing is currently too strong in states like Utah?
Plato
4/1/20 10:02pm
Do you think the curve doesn't need to be flattened in Utah? I do.
flyzag
4/1/20 10:13pm
Now you are being unreasonable. It was a good convo though.
Plato
4/1/20 10:34pm
^this
flyzag
4/1/20 9:01pm
The fact the recent models predcting 100-240k deaths assumed every large city
Taysom 4 Heisman
4/1/20 8:37pm
Remind me in 3-5 days
flyzag
4/1/20 8:56pm
We will not see for a about 10 days if we peak in 3-5. The US is going to be
johnnybyu
4/1/20 9:17pm
remind me in 10 days
flyzag
4/1/20 9:29pm
How do you weigh the effects of the economic devastation?
shammy
4/1/20 11:11pm
Under promise and over deliver. Bodes well for GOP.
Dr MoBYU
4/1/20 10:02pm
What exactly Is your goal with this?
StalwartBraveTrue
4/1/20 11:47pm
Striving for accuracy isn't good enough?
East1999
4/2/20 8:06am
Good data w/ good analysis will lead to good actions, will lead to good results
ebv
4/2/20 10:25am
But does he think posting here is actually going to change what happens in DC?
StalwartBraveTrue
4/2/20 10:59am
There are an awful lot of strawman arguments in your post.
ldssdl
4/2/20 11:25am
As with his.
StalwartBraveTrue
4/2/20 11:36am
A retroactive analysis to determine the accuracy of groups putting out
ldssdl
4/2/20 11:51am
You’re arguing on a random message board so .....
gurt
4/2/20 11:40am
Given the conflicting messages we're getting from leaders everywhere, I'm
ebv
4/2/20 11:44am
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