A retroactive analysis to determine the accuracy of groups putting out

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Apr 2, 2020
11:51:52am

ldssdl All-American

A retroactive analysis to determine the accuracy of groups putting out

regular projections is not a strawman argument, it’s good science. It’s how you refine models to increase the accuracy for the next round of projections; which is important because we don’t want to under react or over react to the seriousness of Covid-19.

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ldssdl

Bio page: ldssdl
Joined: Mar 3, 2013
Last login: May 1, 2024
Total posts: 29,140 (3,815 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Countries updated. Ok, let's do an exercise on how bad these models are off

CSoul

4/1/20 8:00pm

It's almost like the global warming models. Made to predict catastrophe.

Harbinger

4/1/20 8:04pm

Hooray, social distancing and shutting stuff down worked better than

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:07pm

Or the models were terrible from the beginning

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:08pm

Indeed, the predictions are terrible. Good job, everyone. We stopped it!

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:08pm

???

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:11pm

No, you meant to say we based our reaction on bad models and will likely

boogers

4/1/20 8:30pm

Yeah, even those models were way off.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:16pm

Are you saying the experts who have clear conflicts of interest

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:07pm

What conflicts of interest? What possible reason could someone WANT to

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:08pm

Seriously. The worse things sound the more power

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:09pm

My opinion is that noone in charge wants to downplay this thing- and they're not

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:21pm

Overreacting is actually a big deal. A huge deal.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:30pm

Not as much as underreacting

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:34pm

Not necessarily true.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:35pm

Overreacting 1% is very likely less worse than underreacting 1%

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:39pm

You think this is a 1% overreaction?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:40pm

Nope. I think it's a 25% overreaction. But we won't know until the data comes in

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:42pm

We have to get into the depression to see why we did it.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:43pm

To avoid 4M possible deaths. Maybe more since we don't know what we are dealing

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:46pm

Lol, you still believe those models?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:47pm

False. New York is releasing felons from prison and a pastor has been arrested

Ash

4/1/20 8:39pm

$$$$$$$$$$

Bullrider

4/1/20 10:11pm

It seems to me a good thing if the models were off

coolcats

4/1/20 8:18pm

So you are glad we based the coming economic depression on bad data?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:20pm

Where did he say that? Bizarre read.

4/1/20 8:21pm

It was implied. Inadvertently, but nonetheless, implied.

Harbinger

4/1/20 8:40pm

It’s almost like you’re reading your preconceived bias into everything

coolcats

4/1/20 8:44pm

So do tell. Since we agree that models are way off, are we still doing the

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:47pm

A) I’m not conceding the models are way off

coolcats

4/1/20 8:57pm

That was the result of the bad predictions - huge over reactions that hurt the

johnnybyu

4/1/20 8:45pm

I love that people on here keep sticking with this idea that the virus itself

Mitty

4/2/20 11:16am

It would have been minimal. The numbers aren't problematic to the economy, look

Harbinger

4/2/20 11:20am

So you're saying their models we're pretty accurate for Italy and Netherlands

Cougar8Duck

4/1/20 8:23pm

You just want to kill people.

boogers

4/1/20 8:29pm

Given Sweden is 13 days from their 10th death, and you have USA at

Plato

4/1/20 8:35pm

All I know is that in 3 weeks time, we here in Utah are going to be singing a very different tune.

SpiffCoug

4/1/20 8:35pm

What tune? What are you predicting?

Plato

4/1/20 8:41pm

A sad one

flyzag

4/1/20 9:02pm

What's your prediction? I honestly don't think Wasatch front will look

Plato

4/1/20 9:07pm

I believe it will be worse than that.

flyzag

4/1/20 9:28pm

What % of the population are you predicting gets it over those 18 months?

Plato

4/1/20 9:36pm

Michael Osterholm has influenced my thinking quite a bit.

flyzag

4/1/20 9:42pm

So. That's going to happen despite distancing in your projection.

Plato

4/1/20 9:48pm

Distancing doesn't prevent anything. It only slows it. The only thing that will

flyzag

4/1/20 10:00pm

So you agree that distancing is currently too strong in states like Utah?

Plato

4/1/20 10:02pm

Do you think the curve doesn't need to be flattened in Utah? I do.

flyzag

4/1/20 10:13pm

Now you are being unreasonable. It was a good convo though.

Plato

4/1/20 10:34pm

^this

flyzag

4/1/20 9:01pm

The fact the recent models predcting 100-240k deaths assumed every large city

Taysom 4 Heisman

4/1/20 8:37pm

Remind me in 3-5 days

flyzag

4/1/20 8:56pm

We will not see for a about 10 days if we peak in 3-5. The US is going to be

johnnybyu

4/1/20 9:17pm

remind me in 10 days

flyzag

4/1/20 9:29pm

How do you weigh the effects of the economic devastation?

shammy

4/1/20 11:11pm

Under promise and over deliver. Bodes well for GOP.

Dr MoBYU

4/1/20 10:02pm

What exactly Is your goal with this?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/1/20 11:47pm

Striving for accuracy isn't good enough?

East1999

4/2/20 8:06am

Good data w/ good analysis will lead to good actions, will lead to good results

ebv

4/2/20 10:25am

But does he think posting here is actually going to change what happens in DC?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/2/20 10:59am

There are an awful lot of strawman arguments in your post.

ldssdl

4/2/20 11:25am

As with his.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/2/20 11:36am

A retroactive analysis to determine the accuracy of groups putting out

ldssdl

4/2/20 11:51am

You’re arguing on a random message board so .....

gurt

4/2/20 11:40am

Given the conflicting messages we're getting from leaders everywhere, I'm

ebv

4/2/20 11:44am

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