Striving for accuracy isn't good enough?

Apr 2, 2020
8:06:53am

East1999 All-American

There is a substantial amount of information, misinformation, and guessing being disseminated daily. This is his approach to making sense of everything and an attempt to predict with more precision.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Apr 2, 2020 at 8:06:53am

Message modified by East1999 on Apr 2, 2020 at 10:42:31am

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East1999

Bio page: East1999
Joined: Apr 16, 2007
Last login: May 15, 2021
Total posts: 16,198 (4,628 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Countries updated. Ok, let's do an exercise on how bad these models are off

CSoul

4/1/20 8:00pm

It's almost like the global warming models. Made to predict catastrophe.

Harbinger

4/1/20 8:04pm

Hooray, social distancing and shutting stuff down worked better than

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:07pm

Or the models were terrible from the beginning

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:08pm

Indeed, the predictions are terrible. Good job, everyone. We stopped it!

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:08pm

???

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:11pm

No, you meant to say we based our reaction on bad models and will likely

boogers

4/1/20 8:30pm

Yeah, even those models were way off.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:16pm

Are you saying the experts who have clear conflicts of interest

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:07pm

What conflicts of interest? What possible reason could someone WANT to

SandYFan

4/1/20 8:08pm

Seriously. The worse things sound the more power

BYU '80

4/1/20 8:09pm

My opinion is that noone in charge wants to downplay this thing- and they're not

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:21pm

Overreacting is actually a big deal. A huge deal.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:30pm

Not as much as underreacting

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:34pm

Not necessarily true.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:35pm

Overreacting 1% is very likely less worse than underreacting 1%

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:39pm

You think this is a 1% overreaction?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:40pm

Nope. I think it's a 25% overreaction. But we won't know until the data comes in

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:42pm

We have to get into the depression to see why we did it.

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:43pm

To avoid 4M possible deaths. Maybe more since we don't know what we are dealing

Little Britches

4/1/20 8:46pm

Lol, you still believe those models?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:47pm

False. New York is releasing felons from prison and a pastor has been arrested

Ash

4/1/20 8:39pm

$$$$$$$$$$

Bullrider

4/1/20 10:11pm

It seems to me a good thing if the models were off

coolcats

4/1/20 8:18pm

So you are glad we based the coming economic depression on bad data?

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:20pm

Where did he say that? Bizarre read.

AtomicHamster

4/1/20 8:21pm

It was implied. Inadvertently, but nonetheless, implied.

Harbinger

4/1/20 8:40pm

It’s almost like you’re reading your preconceived bias into everything

coolcats

4/1/20 8:44pm

So do tell. Since we agree that models are way off, are we still doing the

Samsonite

4/1/20 8:47pm

A) I’m not conceding the models are way off

coolcats

4/1/20 8:57pm

That was the result of the bad predictions - huge over reactions that hurt the

johnnybyu

4/1/20 8:45pm

I love that people on here keep sticking with this idea that the virus itself

Mitty

4/2/20 11:16am

It would have been minimal. The numbers aren't problematic to the economy, look

Harbinger

4/2/20 11:20am

So you're saying their models we're pretty accurate for Italy and Netherlands

Cougar8Duck

4/1/20 8:23pm

You just want to kill people.

boogers

4/1/20 8:29pm

Given Sweden is 13 days from their 10th death, and you have USA at

Plato

4/1/20 8:35pm

All I know is that in 3 weeks time, we here in Utah are going to be singing a very different tune.

SpiffCoug

4/1/20 8:35pm

What tune? What are you predicting?

Plato

4/1/20 8:41pm

A sad one

flyzag

4/1/20 9:02pm

What's your prediction? I honestly don't think Wasatch front will look

Plato

4/1/20 9:07pm

I believe it will be worse than that.

flyzag

4/1/20 9:28pm

What % of the population are you predicting gets it over those 18 months?

Plato

4/1/20 9:36pm

Michael Osterholm has influenced my thinking quite a bit.

flyzag

4/1/20 9:42pm

So. That's going to happen despite distancing in your projection.

Plato

4/1/20 9:48pm

Distancing doesn't prevent anything. It only slows it. The only thing that will

flyzag

4/1/20 10:00pm

So you agree that distancing is currently too strong in states like Utah?

Plato

4/1/20 10:02pm

Do you think the curve doesn't need to be flattened in Utah? I do.

flyzag

4/1/20 10:13pm

Now you are being unreasonable. It was a good convo though.

Plato

4/1/20 10:34pm

^this

flyzag

4/1/20 9:01pm

The fact the recent models predcting 100-240k deaths assumed every large city

Taysom 4 Heisman

4/1/20 8:37pm

Remind me in 3-5 days

flyzag

4/1/20 8:56pm

We will not see for a about 10 days if we peak in 3-5. The US is going to be

johnnybyu

4/1/20 9:17pm

remind me in 10 days

flyzag

4/1/20 9:29pm

How do you weigh the effects of the economic devastation?

shammy

4/1/20 11:11pm

Under promise and over deliver. Bodes well for GOP.

Dr MoBYU

4/1/20 10:02pm

What exactly Is your goal with this?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/1/20 11:47pm

Striving for accuracy isn't good enough?

East1999

4/2/20 8:06am

Good data w/ good analysis will lead to good actions, will lead to good results

ebv

4/2/20 10:25am

But does he think posting here is actually going to change what happens in DC?

StalwartBraveTrue

4/2/20 10:59am

There are an awful lot of strawman arguments in your post.

ldssdl

4/2/20 11:25am

As with his.

StalwartBraveTrue

4/2/20 11:36am

A retroactive analysis to determine the accuracy of groups putting out

ldssdl

4/2/20 11:51am

You’re arguing on a random message board so .....

gurt

4/2/20 11:40am

Given the conflicting messages we're getting from leaders everywhere, I'm

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