We will hit new highs, yes. But we are entering the up and down era Italy

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Apr 4, 2020
6:53:29pm

jkccoug Intervention Needed

We will hit new highs, yes. But we are entering the up and down era Italy

Has been in for several weeks now, where the overall growth pattern basically stops. We are entering a period when we will soon peak, imo. How long will we be going up and down? I don’t know. But I think we won’t do any real day over day growth that is lasting going forward.

I could be wrong though. Been wrong plenty of times before.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Apr 4, 2020 at 6:53:29pm

Message modified by jkccoug on Apr 4, 2020 at 6:57:17pm

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jkccoug

New username: Socrates Johnson
Bio page: jkccoug
Joined: Jul 19, 2002
Last login: Oct 13, 2021
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Fantastic news. Deaths at only 1048. 3 day average daily growth down to 2.6%

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:44pm

They are 82% under the projections from last week

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:46pm

I don’t know whose projections you are referring to.

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:49pm

The ones published by Gov cuomo. You know. The official ones

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:52pm

I think the point is the predictions were ridiculous to begin with.

kotacoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

More than 1000 people are dying per day. That’s bad.

The Dude Abides

4/4/20 6:59pm

Exactly right. This is *good* news. It means our painful measures are helping.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:02pm

It’s truly incredible that a thousand deaths with strong attempts at prevention

coolcats

4/4/20 7:03pm

We could have 10K deaths a day and some people would still say it's nothing.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:08pm

More exaggeration... if you can’t discuss the topic without getting

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:14pm

I’m far from a doom and gloom guy and I hate the posts that

The Dude Abides

4/4/20 7:12pm

I generally agree with your post but it’s not clear what we are doing

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:16pm

If tallies are decreasing, it is because of NY which is great. But California expects to be much worse in the next two

chago04

4/4/20 7:05pm

This. The US peak is a plateau comprising of lots of individual state peaks

unctoothman

4/4/20 7:14pm

NYC is the largest and most dense city we have. We likely won’t see anything worse than New York and everyone else has

4/4/20 7:36pm

California was inline with ny until they implemented strict measures

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:43pm

No one is going to change their minds about this. I get it.

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:01pm

We don’t know what measures were even needed. What was done was based

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:12pm

You can’t possibly know if the projections were faulty. You do not have access

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:22pm

The projections all of this were originally based on have absolutely been wrong

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:45pm

That is not something you can know. You just cant.

jkccoug

4/4/20 9:16pm

So a projection that said x number of deaths by x date

BYU '80

4/4/20 9:28pm

All projections are based on assumptions. I can project you will get hit by a

jkccoug

4/4/20 9:53pm

But in this scenario, the car is unknown. Neither of you see it. You just think

Harbinger

4/4/20 7:14pm

Or you may not have. Nor is it true that you have no idea if there was a truck

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:23pm

I guess a better way would be to say it was a four lane highway and the truck

Harbinger

4/4/20 7:30pm

Hope so

Blueto

4/4/20 6:48pm

I bet you $10 this is not the peak.

chago04

4/4/20 6:49pm

I’ll bet you a bottle of fish tank cleaner this is somewhere in the neighborhood of the peak

4/4/20 6:52pm

We will hit new highs, yes. But we are entering the up and down era Italy

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:53pm

Peak is in about 2 weeks.

rggee

4/4/20 6:54pm

Based on projections that will likely change in a couple days like all of them

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:46pm

Not enough carnage for ya yet huh

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

No, but the statistical methodology of his prediction isn’t very sound.

chago04

4/4/20 7:01pm

Statisticians are just guessing and failing.... all of them

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:05pm

Yes, we are, but we are using scientific methods to “guess”.

chago04

4/4/20 7:06pm

No. The scientific methods says you try to disprove your theory

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:12pm

Which is why they are not statisticians. My degree is in statistics and I taught stats for several years.

chago04

4/4/20 7:17pm

I’m just looking at the change in the 3-day rolling average daily growth rate

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:07pm

The problem is that we have been seeing one high day followed by a low day for about a week now.

chago04

4/4/20 7:09pm

So single day doesn't work and 3day rolling average doesnt work? What DOES work?

rggee

4/4/20 7:10pm

Three day works as a trend but not point to point comparisons. You need more than 3 days to show a trend.

chago04

4/4/20 7:14pm

I hear you, but high day low day is just what happened in Italy a couple weeks

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:11pm

I’d love for this to be a peak, but our trend over the last week or two is still 20%

chago04

4/4/20 7:16pm

If it goes as they hoped, won't the numbers remain around this rate for some time?

John Doe

4/4/20 6:53pm

Yes.

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

Yes, the 'peak' is pretty wide in most countries. But it does start to come down

rggee

4/4/20 6:55pm

So is this a sign that flattening the curve may be working?

John Doe

4/4/20 6:57pm

Who knows, it's just a sign that we are on our way out of this outbreak.

rggee

4/4/20 6:58pm

With the vast majority of the cases being treated now being 10-14 days old

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:56pm

My thought is that as people start coming out of isolation, some of them will now be susceptible and catch it.

John Doe

4/4/20 7:00pm

We wont be coming out of isolation for a month or so I'd wager

rggee

4/4/20 7:01pm

Another month? Most folks can't afford to do that.

John Doe

4/4/20 7:05pm

I agree. Nevertheless, it's clear that's the plan.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:19pm

This is why the 100% suscess rate with hydroxychloriquin In keeping people out

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:07pm

I thought the University of Washington model was the optimistic one

annapcoug

4/4/20 6:58pm

And they projected over 1340 deaths today

rggee

4/4/20 7:00pm

You can’t look at one day totals. It doesn’t work like that.

chago04

4/4/20 7:02pm

Which is what happened yesterday, roughly. It’s not like they were way off.

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:05pm

Which is what we ended up with. OP jumped the gun

Memmo

4/4/20 7:46pm

They did move some deaths/dates around. Not sure which goes where just yet

jkccoug

4/4/20 8:16pm

I’m seeing the US at 1,331. I think that’s a record for any country, on any day.

chilango

4/4/20 10:00pm

They moved 300ish from yesterday to today. It was 1328 yesterday 1045 today

jkccoug

4/4/20 10:18pm

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