I thought the University of Washington model was the optimistic one

Apr 4, 2020
6:58:47pm

annapcoug Playmaker

It shows deaths climbing for another ~1.5 weeks and then falling off. It is optimistic because it assumes people do a good job of social distancing.

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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annapcoug

New username: justAnotherCoug
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Messages

Author

Time

Fantastic news. Deaths at only 1048. 3 day average daily growth down to 2.6%

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:44pm

They are 82% under the projections from last week

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:46pm

I don’t know whose projections you are referring to.

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:49pm

The ones published by Gov cuomo. You know. The official ones

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:52pm

I think the point is the predictions were ridiculous to begin with.

kotacoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

More than 1000 people are dying per day. That’s bad.

The Dude Abides

4/4/20 6:59pm

Exactly right. This is *good* news. It means our painful measures are helping.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:02pm

It’s truly incredible that a thousand deaths with strong attempts at prevention

coolcats

4/4/20 7:03pm

We could have 10K deaths a day and some people would still say it's nothing.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:08pm

More exaggeration... if you can’t discuss the topic without getting

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:14pm

I’m far from a doom and gloom guy and I hate the posts that

The Dude Abides

4/4/20 7:12pm

I generally agree with your post but it’s not clear what we are doing

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:16pm

If tallies are decreasing, it is because of NY which is great. But California expects to be much worse in the next two

chago04

4/4/20 7:05pm

This. The US peak is a plateau comprising of lots of individual state peaks

unctoothman

4/4/20 7:14pm

NYC is the largest and most dense city we have. We likely won’t see anything worse than New York and everyone else has

YIsForBrigham

4/4/20 7:36pm

California was inline with ny until they implemented strict measures

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:43pm

No one is going to change their minds about this. I get it.

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:01pm

We don’t know what measures were even needed. What was done was based

kotacoug

4/4/20 7:12pm

You can’t possibly know if the projections were faulty. You do not have access

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:22pm

The projections all of this were originally based on have absolutely been wrong

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:45pm

That is not something you can know. You just cant.

jkccoug

4/4/20 9:16pm

So a projection that said x number of deaths by x date

BYU '80

4/4/20 9:28pm

All projections are based on assumptions. I can project you will get hit by a

jkccoug

4/4/20 9:53pm

But in this scenario, the car is unknown. Neither of you see it. You just think

Harbinger

4/4/20 7:14pm

Or you may not have. Nor is it true that you have no idea if there was a truck

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:23pm

I guess a better way would be to say it was a four lane highway and the truck

Harbinger

4/4/20 7:30pm

Hope so

Blueto

4/4/20 6:48pm

I bet you $10 this is not the peak.

chago04

4/4/20 6:49pm

I’ll bet you a bottle of fish tank cleaner this is somewhere in the neighborhood of the peak

YIsForBrigham

4/4/20 6:52pm

We will hit new highs, yes. But we are entering the up and down era Italy

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:53pm

Peak is in about 2 weeks.

rggee

4/4/20 6:54pm

Based on projections that will likely change in a couple days like all of them

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:46pm

Not enough carnage for ya yet huh

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

No, but the statistical methodology of his prediction isn’t very sound.

chago04

4/4/20 7:01pm

Statisticians are just guessing and failing.... all of them

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:05pm

Yes, we are, but we are using scientific methods to “guess”.

chago04

4/4/20 7:06pm

No. The scientific methods says you try to disprove your theory

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:12pm

Which is why they are not statisticians. My degree is in statistics and I taught stats for several years.

chago04

4/4/20 7:17pm

I’m just looking at the change in the 3-day rolling average daily growth rate

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:07pm

The problem is that we have been seeing one high day followed by a low day for about a week now.

chago04

4/4/20 7:09pm

So single day doesn't work and 3day rolling average doesnt work? What DOES work?

rggee

4/4/20 7:10pm

Three day works as a trend but not point to point comparisons. You need more than 3 days to show a trend.

chago04

4/4/20 7:14pm

I hear you, but high day low day is just what happened in Italy a couple weeks

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:11pm

I’d love for this to be a peak, but our trend over the last week or two is still 20%

chago04

4/4/20 7:16pm

If it goes as they hoped, won't the numbers remain around this rate for some time?

John Doe

4/4/20 6:53pm

Yes.

jkccoug

4/4/20 6:54pm

Yes, the 'peak' is pretty wide in most countries. But it does start to come down

rggee

4/4/20 6:55pm

So is this a sign that flattening the curve may be working?

John Doe

4/4/20 6:57pm

Who knows, it's just a sign that we are on our way out of this outbreak.

rggee

4/4/20 6:58pm

With the vast majority of the cases being treated now being 10-14 days old

travelcoug

4/4/20 6:56pm

My thought is that as people start coming out of isolation, some of them will now be susceptible and catch it.

John Doe

4/4/20 7:00pm

We wont be coming out of isolation for a month or so I'd wager

rggee

4/4/20 7:01pm

Another month? Most folks can't afford to do that.

John Doe

4/4/20 7:05pm

I agree. Nevertheless, it's clear that's the plan.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:19pm

This is why the 100% suscess rate with hydroxychloriquin In keeping people out

travelcoug

4/4/20 7:07pm

I thought the University of Washington model was the optimistic one

annapcoug

4/4/20 6:58pm

And they projected over 1340 deaths today

rggee

4/4/20 7:00pm

You can’t look at one day totals. It doesn’t work like that.

chago04

4/4/20 7:02pm

Which is what happened yesterday, roughly. It’s not like they were way off.

jkccoug

4/4/20 7:05pm

Which is what we ended up with. OP jumped the gun

Memmo

4/4/20 7:46pm

They did move some deaths/dates around. Not sure which goes where just yet

jkccoug

4/4/20 8:16pm

I’m seeing the US at 1,331. I think that’s a record for any country, on any day.

chilango

4/4/20 10:00pm

They moved 300ish from yesterday to today. It was 1328 yesterday 1045 today

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