It's an opinion based on so much hypothetical that you really can't say either way. I do think we could play for a national championship in the AAC. If we beat Oklahoma, Kentucky and Utah in OOC, then ran the AAC through UCF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, that would get us there.
To get there as an independent we'd similarly need to beat Utah, beat a high level P5 (like Oklahoma) and a bunch of other middling P5s.