Sep 20, 2021
1:05:46pm
1:05:46pm
You have to weigh probabilities multiplied by the downside/upside of those probabilities
Yeah, probabilities are very low they score for either. But if you do kick it you’re still only a 2 score game…
If it’s blocked and returned it’s a 1 score game.
So only one of those decisions makes it so you are staring at a 1 score game… why even include that in your decision matrix when you can eliminate the probability altogether.
It’s like life insurance… yeah, you are almost certainly spending money on nothing. But it removes a destitute single wife/kids from any future scenario.
If it’s blocked and returned it’s a 1 score game.
So only one of those decisions makes it so you are staring at a 1 score game… why even include that in your decision matrix when you can eliminate the probability altogether.
It’s like life insurance… yeah, you are almost certainly spending money on nothing. But it removes a destitute single wife/kids from any future scenario.
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POLL: Regarding the decision to take a knee instead of kick the extra point, which outcome would have been more likely?
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