Except I wasn’t considering the odds of a 2pt kick return alone, but the added

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Sep 20, 2021
1:11:05pm

BYUCLA All-American

Except I wasn’t considering the odds of a 2pt kick return alone, but the added

probability of all the events together leading to the same outcome (forcing OT). As you said you would need to consider the potential outcomes of each individual step of the equation, but my two choices have the exact same outcome and I was asking which is more likely between the 2.

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BYUCLA

Previous username: jco77
Bio page: BYUCLA
Joined: Jul 23, 2012
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 5,042 (4 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

POLL: Regarding the decision to take a knee instead of kick the extra point, which outcome would have been more likely?

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:02pm

Likelihood is only part of the equation… you don’t buy life insurance because of the likelihood.

WP17

9/20/21 12:04pm

I’m not sure I follow. What else is there consider if the potential outcome is

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:32pm

You have to weigh probabilities multiplied by the downside/upside of those probabilities

WP17

9/20/21 1:05pm

Except I wasn’t considering the odds of a 2pt kick return alone, but the added

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:11pm

when you have the backup kicker in there might as well not take the chance

Cougz19

9/20/21 12:06pm

This is a game theory problem not a probability one.

Blue Print

9/20/21 12:25pm

You are leaving out an important part of the equation

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:31pm

No I’m not.

Blue Print

9/20/21 12:39pm

There are no guarantees in football

9/20/21 12:57pm

I’m not disagreeing with your conclusion, but I am disagreeing with your logic

BYUCLA

9/20/21 12:58pm

I'm not talking probabilities.

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:02pm

I guess I just think that considering it using game theory gives you a lower

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:08pm

For real though, I’m not familiar with game theory and am not sure I understand

BYUCLA

9/20/21 1:12pm

Game theory is designed to minimize uncontrollable risk.

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:41pm

IE, if kicking minimizes your risk of losing, you should kick it.

9/20/21 1:47pm

No the exact opposite. "Does not kicking do any significant harm to winning."

Blue Print

9/20/21 1:50pm

If kicking does significant harm to winning then it's not minimizing your risk

9/20/21 1:56pm

But you still have some uncontrollable risk in that scenario…

WP17

9/20/21 2:26pm

Kneeling does not remove all risk — it gives you a different set of risks

9/20/21 3:22pm

But no time runs off the clock on the conversion attempt.

gmj81

9/20/21 12:41pm

I'm in the kick the extra point camp but I don't think Lamb made a bad choice. With 1:20 left and no timeouts left I

HarlemCoug

9/20/21 12:39pm

This was the takeaway for me. If they're thinking this much about a situation

9/20/21 1:12pm

They can score very quickly. Guaranteeing 2 possessions needed was smart.

Byron McNertney

9/20/21 12:42pm

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