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Sep 20, 2021
2:26
:50
pm
WP17
King of the Kenai
But you still have some uncontrollable risk in that scenario…
With kneeling it then you have no uncontrolled risk and stay up 2 scores, same as if you kicked and scored
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WP17
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WP17
Joined
Sep 12, 2016
Last login
Apr 28, 2024
Total posts
9,739 (815 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
POLL: Regarding the decision to take a knee instead of kick the extra point, which outcome would have been more likely?
BYUCLA
9/20/21 12:02pm
Likelihood is only part of the equation… you don’t buy life insurance because of the likelihood.
WP17
9/20/21 12:04pm
I’m not sure I follow. What else is there consider if the potential outcome is
BYUCLA
9/20/21 12:32pm
You have to weigh probabilities multiplied by the downside/upside of those probabilities
WP17
9/20/21 1:05pm
Except I wasn’t considering the odds of a 2pt kick return alone, but the added
BYUCLA
9/20/21 1:11pm
when you have the backup kicker in there might as well not take the chance
Cougz19
9/20/21 12:06pm
This is a game theory problem not a probability one.
Blue Print
9/20/21 12:25pm
You are leaving out an important part of the equation
BYUCLA
9/20/21 12:31pm
No I’m not.
Blue Print
9/20/21 12:39pm
There are no guarantees in football
Still Questing
9/20/21 12:57pm
I’m not disagreeing with your conclusion, but I am disagreeing with your logic
BYUCLA
9/20/21 12:58pm
I'm not talking probabilities.
Blue Print
9/20/21 1:02pm
I guess I just think that considering it using game theory gives you a lower
BYUCLA
9/20/21 1:08pm
For real though, I’m not familiar with game theory and am not sure I understand
BYUCLA
9/20/21 1:12pm
Game theory is designed to minimize uncontrollable risk.
Blue Print
9/20/21 1:41pm
IE, if kicking minimizes your risk of losing, you should kick it.
Still Questing
9/20/21 1:47pm
No the exact opposite. "Does not kicking do any significant harm to winning."
Blue Print
9/20/21 1:50pm
If kicking does significant harm to winning then it's not minimizing your risk
Still Questing
9/20/21 1:56pm
But you still have some uncontrollable risk in that scenario…
WP17
9/20/21 2:26pm
Kneeling does not remove all risk — it gives you a different set of risks
Still Questing
9/20/21 3:22pm
But no time runs off the clock on the conversion attempt.
gmj81
9/20/21 12:41pm
I'm in the kick the extra point camp but I don't think Lamb made a bad choice. With 1:20 left and no timeouts left I
HarlemCoug
9/20/21 12:39pm
This was the takeaway for me. If they're thinking this much about a situation
Still Questing
9/20/21 1:12pm
They can score very quickly. Guaranteeing 2 possessions needed was smart.
Byron McNertney
9/20/21 12:42pm
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