Like most humans, I predict more things incorrectly than correctly. But Housing

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Jun 29, 2022
9:25:56am

grosven All-American

Like most humans, I predict more things incorrectly than correctly. But Housing

Bubble seemed obvious. Maybe it's not as bad as it seems, but the tune is different than it was even just 3 months ago. "This time it's different" is a hallmark of bubbles. As long as housing payments can be made, I don't think people have much to worry about. If they can't, then yeah, this bubble pop is likely to be epic.

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This message has been modified

Originally posted on Jun 29, 2022 at 9:25:56am

Message modified by grosven on Jun 29, 2022 at 9:26:40am

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grosven

Bio page: grosven
Joined: Aug 13, 2009
Last login: May 1, 2024
Total posts: 13,275 (41 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

It sure seems like (in my uneducated option) that the housing market could get really bad, really fast.

Ragnar Danneskjold $4,000,000 never forget

6/29/22 9:08am

If we go full recession mode, yep..turns into a buyers market real quick for

Squirt

6/29/22 9:11am

be careful when getting advice from professionals

byukarl

6/29/22 9:12am

It's total rah-rah groupthink with them.

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:13am

Supply/Demand still applies, and there are many places where demand for housing

Skeptical Optimist

6/29/22 9:13am

Agreed. But what people qualify for just dropped like a ton of bricks.

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:14am

Why would people want to move to the mountain west? There is no water there

TNT

6/29/22 9:14am

Not moist at all.

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:14am

Where are those places right now?

Iman23

6/29/22 9:19am

Yes, but demand will start to dry up when purchasing power is completely hamstrung

Indy Coug

6/29/22 9:19am

Demand can fall off a cliff very quickly

slappy

6/29/22 9:30am

Not if people don't have a place to live

Skeptical Optimist

6/29/22 10:08am

No one knows for sure, but if the economy continues down this path, the housing market could be hurting soon. Rising

slappy

6/29/22 10:17am

I know someone who sold 3 weeks ago who felt lucky to sell at asking, they where

byu1

6/29/22 9:17am

Looks like my details were off. Sold $2.3 mil. Refused 200k

byu1

6/29/22 9:18am

RE: Looks like my details were off. Sold $2.3 mil. Refused 200k

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:22am

I love the attitude of some sellers.

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:19am

She wasn’t like that at all. Very humble, but was “hoping” to get more like

byu1

6/29/22 10:59am

I mean if you are already in a home with a conventional mortgage, it doesn't matter.

6/29/22 9:20am

Unless it crashes really bad and you need to sell. But, yeah, those who got in

fattycoug

6/29/22 10:23am

With remote work being a big option, hopefully no need to sell. But lots of different circumstances.

6/29/22 12:14pm

I was talking with my buddy that’s in real estate. He didn’t think there was going to be a huge crash like 2008 in my

cheezedawg

6/29/22 9:22am

Yup. If there are a lot of cash buyers, that could be the case. But I think that cools off too.

Ragnar Danneskjold

6/29/22 9:24am

It will be interesting to watch. Rental prices are increasing double digit %

Acorn

6/29/22 9:24am

Like most humans, I predict more things incorrectly than correctly. But Housing

grosven

6/29/22 9:25am

2008 was a total anomaly. Today is nothing like 2008.

Jay Kay

6/29/22 9:33am

In some ways, it is always different this time. But in other ways, it is always

crack

6/29/22 10:36am

I just have to laugh! Yes, house prices may fall for a year or 2 but history

6/29/22 10:00am

That's actually how to play the long game

byukarl

6/29/22 10:05am

Your house does not produce cashflow until you rent it out, and ...

grosven

6/29/22 10:19am

One thing that could save a lot of people is remote work and there being less need to sell a home and move for new work.

zonacougar

6/29/22 10:00am

many employers are dialing that back though

byukarl

6/29/22 10:14am

Maybe a short term (small) dip, but supply is too constrained for a crash.

VenturaCoug

6/29/22 10:01am

You have to look at incomes when it comes to housing

byukarl

6/29/22 10:09am

Three comments:

VenturaCoug

6/29/22 10:42am

Agreed for people cheering for a housing crash they really don’t want that. It

johnnybyu

6/29/22 3:44pm

I think you will be wrong. They will definitely be lower in 2 years.

Iman23

6/29/22 8:39pm

How? I respect your right to disagree, but I don’t see it without a major

VenturaCoug

6/29/22 8:51pm

Agreed,If I am wrong it will be because we have the Great Recession 2.0. Which

johnnybyu

6/29/22 11:37pm

A really scary aspect to the whole thing is how much purchasing power is built on asset prices

JollyGreenGiant

6/29/22 10:13am

Agreed it would take an unemployment rate of something like 20% to match 2008in

Nat Gas Man

6/29/22 11:45pm

Most home mortgages were on 30 year fixed rates to people with credit scores

Gente_Boa

6/29/22 11:11am

I agree sellers will see rents being $500-1000 more than their house payment and

johnnybyu

6/29/22 4:10pm

I don't think prices will drop fast enough to offset the raise in interest. Demand will drop, but we are at a ~5mm

molodyets

6/29/22 11:24am

One thing we learned from 2009 is that housing prices can move much faster than many expect.

HarlemCoug

6/29/22 11:45am

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