Jul 3, 2022
8:38:42am
Baylorbears11 3rd String
RE: Why no talk of PAC-12 poaching from BigXII?
Some things to consider:

1. The projected Big 12 media contract with new members was competitive with the PAC projections with USC/UCLA. USC/UCLA represent about 20-25% of the PAC media value and they lost SoCal as a market. New deal will probably be less than than New Big 12 contract.

2. The PAC brands that are most attractive are Washington/Oregon. Are those teams going to be there long term? If not, why would you move?

3. Big 12 exit fees are something like $80mm per team. This is separate from the GOR which still exists for the next two years, the new members are already figured into that two year contract. Is the new PAC contract going to be worth that squeeze? Especially without USC/UCLA?

4. The PAC-12 has a demographics problem. Generally, Western (especially West Coast) populations are more apathetic towards college sports and college football. That isn’t say there is no interest in them at all, just that it isn’t a priority for many and that makes it difficult to get deep market penetration in that area of the county. Comparatively, the New Big 12 schools are all highly invested in college athletics and they are all football hungry fanbases.

5. There is more money to be made from PAC programs going East, than there are with Big 12 programs going west. The New Big 12 commands teams at every time slot, but their central core and Eastern division means more eyeballs and earlier kickoff times compared to the late night kicks the PAC has enjoyed.

6. The Big 12’s eastern wing means the Big 12 is accessible to potential ACC leftovers. The odds of FSU/Clemson/UNC/Notre Dame all sitting still when there is $100mm/year available to them means that the ACC composition is unlikely to outlast their current media contract (even if it does last to 2034.) The Potential future Big 12 with strong western, central, and eastern components is well equipped to offer an attractive brands and markets to ACC teams looking for another solution.

It isn’t that your idea isn’t sensible, it is. It is just that these things play out better on a message board than they do in the conference HQs and President offices. Any attempts at coordination are historically a day late and a dollar short.

I think you are going to see a PAC with very few options. They very well may add SDSU and UNLV or Boise, but I don’t think any of these teams are going to be attractive to PAC members long term and they aren’t going to be convince Washington/Oregon to stick around beyond the next media contract. For the rest of the teams, the Big 12 isn’t a bad option at all. Odd as it may be and as maligned as the conference has been, the Big 12 has some natural assets and some very competitive programs. A potential PAC-12 South quad of ASU/AU, Utah, and Colorado would not be out of place in that conference. Similarly, an eastern wing of WVU/Cincy/UCF and the ACC would also work well. That conference then commands a large number of media markets and brands that, while not elite do have value, they are geographically situated to avoid extreme travel and maintain some semblance of historical rivalries within their divisions.
Baylorbears11
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Baylorbears11
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