When Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving. The top Big12 teams most likely would have left for the pac if they’d been invited at that time.
PAC has obviously been damaged with the loss of usc, but Oregon and UW are still bigger brands than the big12 has. The issue is, of course, that both Oregon and UW are trying to leave so it’s not like the pac is stable at the remaining top. But if Oregon doesn’t leave, then the PAC becomes more stable, at least for now. This is one of the reasons that the Big12 should just go on offensive now with the Arizona schools and probably Utah to get them to leave and to further destabilize the PAC.