Only variables. However, the SEC and B1G want an expanded playoff so they can get more schools in. This will open positions for even the MWC because 16 seems to be the number the big confs and TV want. Once the playoff is expanded, there will be more incentive for really good players to go to smaller schools, thus, somewhat leveling the playing field and keeping conf relevance.
NIL on the other hand will entice the great players to where the money is. It will be NIL, not conf realignment that drives the disparity in conf. That said, if BYU wants to survive long term, it’s NIL they need to worry about.