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Mar 28, 2024
10:29:47am
seacougar Playmaker
A fear often expressed by a boomer who just purchased their 5th rental home...
Don't get me wrong, I don't begrudge them for it. But it is astounding to me how disconnected people are from the some of the more basic cause-effect factors of the housing price.. It's nearly all driven by behavior we all participate in happily while we personally benefit, but then want to lament the obvious natural outcomes. Everyone wants all the cake they can get, and then be outraged and incredulous when there isn't any cake left. You don't get to change all the variables of an equation, and then expect that somehow to outcome will remain unchanged from the old one you preferred.

Very Clear Supply and Demand Factors (in Utah specifically, compared to previous generations):

- Successful established folks buying additional homes as investments
- Climbing divorce rates turn a single household into two, and further reduced supply
- Greater number of single people staying single longer buying homes on their own. Often retaining them after eventually marrying and forming a single household.
- Families encouraging all their children to move "back to Utah".
- Families continuing to have many children, all of which will be encouraged to stay in Utah and buy homes ASAP, and then invest... see above.
- A social media culture that glamorizes and promotes real estate investment (flippers, AirBnB empires, everyone's SIL's dog being an agent, etc)
- A consumption culture that creates greater upward pressure of salaries to support
- A entrepreneurial culture that encourages formation of businesses (particularly tech) that creates more high-paying jobs, increasing the percentage of local college grads that stay "home" in UT instead of leaving for career opportunities in other locations.
- Societal encouragement of women to further education and career, dramatically increasing the number of dual-income households
- A proliferation of the DINK "movement"
- Consumer demand for considerably larger homes with more luxuries than previous generations
- Institutional investors (Blackrock, etc) sucking up supply in pursuit of the shareholder value we all want to see in our 401ks
- Unprecedented and unsustainably low interest rates driving euphoric investments and overbuying with "near-free" money and absurdly easy access to capital
- Lower barriers to entry in terms of loan requirements, putting more people in the game than would have previously been able in natural markets
- Corruption within state and local government in how grants are awarded, manipulation of zoning rules, building standards, etc
- Continued acceptance of Federal control of Utah land (70% of the state is federal and unbuildable)
- Layers of regulations at all levels of the supply chain impacting material costs (from EPA standards to minimum wage laws)
- And acceptance of foreign investment into domestic real estate
- A promotion of social attitudes and policies in other areas along the West coast that cause large numbers of people to want to relocate
- Inflation due to US currency practices to continue enabling a government to provide the services that society seems to demand and operate in a way said society seems to accept


My point isn't to villainize or take a stance on any one of those factors being good or bad, rather to point out we are all contributing to the housing prices in some way that is likely benefitting us personally, while simultaneously casting concern over the future sustainability. We should act like it's some kind of mystery why we can't have our cake and eat it too.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Mar 28, 2024 at 10:29:47am
Message modified by seacougar on Mar 28, 2024 at 10:34:11am
Message modified by seacougar on Mar 28, 2024 at 10:54:15am
seacougar
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seacougar
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