their bowls? Scheduling G5 caliber opponents that don't want bowl access is not a challenge for P5 teams. And why would P5 teams make concessions to play BYU later?... BYU's schedule isn't rivaling P5 schedules. P5 teams are playing 8/9 P5 games per year.

Being in a conference vs being independent doesn't matter if you win. I think BYU would win more in a G5 conference and would get more attention, but if they consistently won 9/10 games as independent they'd prob be top 25. I just don't see that happening as an independent with BYU's recruiting base.

There's nothing happening in CFB right that is pushing teams towards independence. There's too many advantages to being in a conference.

I don't see the bowl organizations being all that interested in making side deals with BYU. While BYU travels well, teams in conferences attract wider audiences.

Even though I disagreed with a lot of your points I think your line of thinking is reasonable. But it always comes back to winning. Everything about independence looks so much more attractive if you win.