We can use Washington as a rough model, but that’s probably the best model we have. The important data that should be driving location-specific policies won’t be available until 12-14 days after quarantine starts. Because even if we implemented a perfect 100% shutdown with zero cross exposure, we’d still see new cases surfacing for 14-28 days based on people exposed before lockdown and people exposing their own families.

And it’s all going to be locations specific. New York and Italy numbers are meaningless to Utah. Yet our panic seems to mirror the numbers in Italy.