Here are the 10 teams that are a lock for a NY6 game:

Georgia (#1, Playing Alabama)
Michigan (#2, Playing Iowa)
Alabama (#3, Playing Georgia)
Cincinnati (#4, Playing Houston)
Oklahoma State (#5, Playing Baylor)
Notre Dame (#6, Not Playing)
Ohio State (#7, Not Playing)
Ole Miss (#8, Not Playing)
Winner of the Oregon (#10)/Utah (#17) game
Winner of the Wake Forest (#15)/Pitt (#16) game

The last 2 spots will be picked from:
Michigan State (ranked #11, not playing)
Baylor (ranked #9, playing Oklahoma State - they are in if they win)
Iowa (ranked #13, playing Michigan - they are in if they win)
BYU (ranked #12, not playing)
Oregon if they lose to Utah (currently ranked #10, but would drop)

So if Baylor or Iowa win, there isn't a chance because BYU is not leapfrogging Michigan State. But here is what would need to happen for BYU to even be in the conversation:
-Baylor loses and drops more than 3 spots
-Iowa loses
-If Oregon loses, they drop more than 2 spots

That would put Michigan State at #10 and BYU #11 (or #9 and #10 if Oregon Loses) and they would get the last NY6 nods.