The P5 conference champions are guaranteed a slot in the NY6 bowls. The Rose Bowl slot is going to go to the P12 Champion regardless of where they're ranked. We're not competing with the P12 conference champion for a slot because they have a slot guaranteed.

Similarly, the winner of the ACC championship game (Wake/Pitt) is going to get in regardless. Both those teams are ranked below BYU, and it's likely that the winner of the game may end up still ranked below BYU in the final rankings, but they're guaranteed a slot in a NY6 bowl anyway.

BYU is competing for one of the 4 at-large slots this year. There are only 4. They go to non-conference champions who are not in the playoffs, and would include the highest ranked G5 conference champion.

So, for BYU to be in the best spot possible, we want the best, highest ranked, team from the P5 conferences to win their CCGs. That means Oregon and OK State.

We also don't want Cinci to drop out of the playoffs because then they eat up one of the few at-large slots. We definitely don't want Houston to beat Cincinnati, because that would give Houston or SDSU one of the at-large slots, with maybe even Cinci taking up another slot.

Bottom line: We need to pass and/or stay ahead of the #2 B12 team and the #2 P12 team.

We don't want Iowa (#13) to beat Michigan, which would probably cause Iowa to jump BYU, but leave Michigan in a NY6 bowl.

We can't have Houston beat Cincinnati.

We can't have OK State in the top 4.

It would be best for BYU if Alabama beats Georgia, which would keep the top 4 pretty much intact, just reshuffle the order. Then if we pass Baylor, there's a realistic shot we squeak in.