It's all about math and odds in recruiting. BYU doesn't go out and waste time recruiting against Alabama because the odds are, they won't win those recruiting battles. They focus on the kids that they have a better chance of landing. It's like sales, go after the deals you can win, let the deals you have no chance getting go, don't waste your time working on a deal that you have a very small chance at landing because the opportunity cost is you could have been spending your time and efforts landing the type of deals you are good at converting.

I never said BYU should target every LDS, legacy, or Timpview player, but when they've determined one of those kids is a good fit and worth pursuing, they are recruiting kids that they normally have a very high chance of landing. In the past if they have a 90% conversion rate on those types of kids (not every slam dunk is successful, it's just an easier chance at conversion) and now they are down to a 70% conversion rate (made up numbers just to help illustrate the point) then I see a problem.

It is not arrogance to expect a higher conversion rate on your slam dunk kids, it's math, it's evaluating your program against past efforts, and if those "conversions" have gone down, that's a problem with the program. I never said if one of these kids doesn't select BYU they are Chris Burgess and letting down the Church and they shouldn't go anywhere from BYU. Kids have options, you bet! Do what's best for you, you bet! But when your program is seeing more of these "slam dunk" recruits go elsewhere, and your conversion rate is down (my perception, not sure what the precise numbers are) that, my friend, is the red flag.