Last year, BYU had the offensive post presence everyone was clamoring for over the years, they had the excellent free throw shooting that many said was essential, they led the nation in defensive rebounds, had good 3 point shooters, size, quickness, brains, hope, optimism, and they had LP3 with gobs of support.

That support included senior grad transfer LJ Rose, who BTW despite missing 1/3 of the season, finished with more total assists than anyone on the roster, 3rd in total rebounds, and 3rd in total steals. They also planned on solid senior big Kyle Davis, consensus star Eli Bryant, and 4-star big RM Payton Dastrup who landed perhaps more scholarship offers than any player in BYU history.

But BYU had two big problems in 2017 that resulted in a disappointing season, one not controllable and one controllable: 1) the Cougars were cursed with another outbreak of debilitating injuries, and 2) the team went to war with an outdated strategic plan on offense.

Regarding the latter point, opponents discovered that if they stopped BYU from executing transition baskets, they had little reason to fear the Cougars' deficient half court game. So, St Mary's innovated and others did also. Foes simply sent 4 or 5 defenders back after a shot and allowed the Cougars to lead the nation in defensive rebounds. The result was several games wherein BYU scored zero points in transition. Not good for a predominantly fast break team with an inadequate Plan B for offense, which ended the season with an adjusted PPP #87, weakest in 5 years by a wide margin.

Media expectations didn't hurt this team last year. Injuries, outdated strategy, and eventually discouragement did, as BYU guards took low percentage extra long shots rather than give the ball up out of fear they would not get it back.

But that was last year.

This team is looking better than some think for 2018. It would be better with Eric Mika, of course, but with the blessing of good health for recovering Zac Seljaas, Elijah Bryant and other rotation players, look for a stronger team than last year.

Expectations for 2017-2018 are rising with the unexpected return of Seljaas, the unexpected signing of highly talented PG Jahshire Hardnett, a commitment to a better half court offense, and another very nice possible roster add from afar who could boost the morale of even the most sulky BYU sourpusses, and surely make all CBers happy they sent Jerell Springer South. These improvements, plus the maturity of the returnees including new RMs, should outweigh the loss of the big guy to the pros.

My bet is that all roster changes of choice, aside from Mika's departure, will be eventually hailed as strengthening to BYU, a tribute to the continued long term effective leadership of Coach Dave Rose.

BYUheaven's conjecture post of May 18 on recruiting crap was right on target. To that we add the following:

1. Springer would likely have been exclusively deep bench at BYU. You can argue him vs Bergerson but the Idaho wing is more likely to stay at BYU because he is less likely to find it to be an alien environment.

2. Popoola demonstrated he was not in the same talent class of Emery, Haws, and Bryant at BYU workouts last year.

3. Mika gave BYU 2 seasons of excellent service and wanted to move on. Bless him.

4. Brenchley was never offered and that was a BYU coaches' blunder.

5. Nevertheless, my guess is you won't be wanting to trade JC transfer Jahshire Hardnett for any of the group of recruits mentioned above.

6. Dave Rose is not done signing talent for 2017-2018. You just might love the next one.

With Zac's example of actually taking 3s from the arc rather than several feet behind it, the exceptionally talented Haws and Emery can be expected to shoot shorter range 3s and to do so in rhythm with space and at an even higher percentage. Hardnett is going to help in hitting the open man off his dribble drive while sinking 40%+ himself from the arc.

So there is more than enough talent to have a stronger year, assuming good health.

The biggest wild card may be planned systemic improvements in the offense. BYU faced something new last year that hasn't even yet found its way into modern analytics. Stat gurus continue to suggest that mighty offensive rebounding necessarily leads to winning games. A few coaches have demonstrated over the last two years that sometimes, such as when facing a dangerous running team like BYU, that the opposite is true. Hypermodern defenses opt to give up offensive rebounds when opposing outstanding transition teams, as SMC said to the Cougars in effect: "you can have the defensive rebounds, but if you are going to score against us, it is going to be in the half court." Running faster wouldn't do.

SMC, Gonzaga, and by late in the season Santa Clara and others, completely shut down BYU's transition game (as in zero transition baskets in entire games) by allowing BYU to dominate the defensive glass while sending four back on defense. BYU's ineffective half court offense consisted of either feeding Mika, who demonstrated little inclination to kick it out though he eventually found a high/low pass to Yo, or settling for contested or out of range 3s.

But if the team can augment its menacing fast break game with an equally dangerous half court attack a la St Mary's, BYU's offense is likely to improve a great deal. According to Pomeroy, Rose's greatest ever offense was in 2015 (Tyler Haws, KC, Halford, Winder, Fischer) when they played without the help of any D-1 level post presence despite all the weeping and wailing in Cougar Nation at the time about the lack of post scoring.

Overall, the addition of Seljaas and the promising Hardnett, along with the maturity of the 3 legit guards returning in TJ, Emery, and Eli, this backcourt could rival that elite 2015 offense. In 2017, Pomeroy tells us that BYU was #87 in the nation in offense, one of Rose's worst on that side of the ball. It won't be satisfying for that to merely improve to #40. Rather, with the improved talent on the roster, we should look for it to rival the 3 top 10 offenses that BYU achieved under Rose in 2010, 2011, and 2015.

But bigs matter on defense a lot, and we'll see if the Cougars can be decent enough on that side of the ball. They won't have a Mika, but they do have a few credible possibilities. Yoeli Childs and Payton Dastrup are far and away the favorites and both have the physical and mental goods to be effective on both sides of the ball. With body bangers Mika and Kaufusi moving on, Luke Worthington will be called upon as a defensive contributor. Ryan Andrus demonstrated as a freshman in Spokane that he is not afraid of big moments and forward Dalton Nixon was a perfect 13 of 13 from the free throw line before his mission which proves he can shoot.

Defense was an identical #87 in the nation in 2017, inflated by donated defensive rebounds. However unsatisfying, that is about average for BYU over the last 12 years. Forthcoming coach Heath Schroyer is seen as the man on the white horse who is capable of engineering significant defensive improvement. We'd gladly take top 40 in defensive PPP.

All this could add up to another 25 win season for Dave Rose's squad, a stronger than ever challenge for the WCC crown, and a move up from a distasteful #89 back into the lofty top 40.